**Forecast consensus from MetService, NIWA seasonal guidance, and global models points to a daytime maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on August 22, aligning with the near-even 47% implied probabilities on those outcomes.** August climatology shows average highs near 12–13°C under typical westerly flow, but short-term variability arises from frontal passages, cloud cover modulating solar heating, and local wind regimes that can enhance or suppress mixing. Recent model runs indicate mostly stable conditions with light southwesterlies and limited precipitation, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms without strong warm advection. Differentiation between 13°C and 14°C hinges on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer details, while a 15°C outcome would require clearer skies or a modest northerly shift—scenarios assigned lower weight given current guidance. Updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution improves.