Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 31.6% implied probability for US military action in 2026, reflecting six to seven confirmed theaters year-to-date: Yemen against Houthis via Operation Rough Rider, Syria and Iraq targeting ISIS under Operation Hawkeye Strike, Somalia for counterterrorism, Venezuela from January special operations, and Iran following a 38-day campaign of over 13,000 airstrikes that ended in early April amid ongoing naval blockades and mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz. The tight race with 8 (23.4%) and 9 (13.6%) stems from uncertainty over additional CENTCOM or AFRICOM operations, such as potential Nigeria escalations or Houthi/Iran proxy expansions, keeping higher counts viable through year-end despite no new major announcements in the past week. Fresh diplomatic signals or proxy attacks could push toward 8+, while de-escalation might solidify at 7.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIlang iba 't ibang bansa ang isasagawa ng US ng aksyong militar laban sa 2026?
Ilang iba 't ibang bansa ang isasagawa ng US ng aksyong militar laban sa 2026?
7 31.6%
8 23.4%
9 13.6%
6 10.0%
$974,063 Vol.
$974,063 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
10%
7
32%
8
23%
9
14%
10
9%
11
7%
12
3%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
1%
7 31.6%
8 23.4%
9 13.6%
6 10.0%
$974,063 Vol.
$974,063 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
$423,302 Vol.
10%
7
$6,873 Vol.
32%
8
$105,384 Vol.
23%
9
$11,435 Vol.
14%
10
$12,069 Vol.
9%
11
$17,452 Vol.
7%
12
$28,463 Vol.
3%
13
$47,269 Vol.
2%
14
$42,131 Vol.
1%
15+
$119,843 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 31.6% implied probability for US military action in 2026, reflecting six to seven confirmed theaters year-to-date: Yemen against Houthis via Operation Rough Rider, Syria and Iraq targeting ISIS under Operation Hawkeye Strike, Somalia for counterterrorism, Venezuela from January special operations, and Iran following a 38-day campaign of over 13,000 airstrikes that ended in early April amid ongoing naval blockades and mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz. The tight race with 8 (23.4%) and 9 (13.6%) stems from uncertainty over additional CENTCOM or AFRICOM operations, such as potential Nigeria escalations or Houthi/Iran proxy expansions, keeping higher counts viable through year-end despite no new major announcements in the past week. Fresh diplomatic signals or proxy attacks could push toward 8+, while de-escalation might solidify at 7.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$974,063Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 31.6% implied probability for US military action in 2026, reflecting six to seven confirmed theaters year-to-date: Yemen against Houthis via Operation Rough Rider, Syria and Iraq targeting ISIS under Operation Hawkeye Strike, Somalia for counterterrorism, Venezuela from January special operations, and Iran following a 38-day campaign of over 13,000 airstrikes that ended in early April amid ongoing naval blockades and mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz. The tight race with 8 (23.4%) and 9 (13.6%) stems from uncertainty over additional CENTCOM or AFRICOM operations, such as potential Nigeria escalations or Houthi/Iran proxy expansions, keeping higher counts viable through year-end despite no new major announcements in the past week. Fresh diplomatic signals or proxy attacks could push toward 8+, while de-escalation might solidify at 7.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$974,063Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 31.6% implied probability for US military action in 2026, reflecting six to seven confirmed theaters year-to-date: Yemen against Houthis via Operation Rough Rider, Syria and Iraq targeting ISIS under Operation Hawkeye Strike, Somalia for counterterrorism, Venezuela from January special operations, and Iran following a 38-day campaign of over 13,000 airstrikes that ended in early April amid ongoing naval blockades and mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz. The tight race with 8 (23.4%) and 9 (13.6%) stems from uncertainty over additional CENTCOM or AFRICOM operations, such as potential Nigeria escalations or Houthi/Iran proxy expansions, keeping higher counts viable through year-end despite no new major announcements in the past week. Fresh diplomatic signals or proxy attacks could push toward 8+, while de-escalation might solidify at 7.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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