NATO accession requires unanimous approval from all 32 members and remains blocked by the absence of consensus on extending Article 5 guarantees during active conflict with Russia. The July 2026 Ankara summit produced a €70 billion military aid pledge for 2026–2027 and reaffirmed support for interoperability and reforms but offered no invitation or accelerated timeline, consistent with repeated allied statements prioritizing sustained assistance over membership. Ukrainian officials, including former commander Valery Zaluzhnyi in early August, have publicly acknowledged that current military standards fall short of alliance requirements. Trader consensus at 96.5% for “No” before 2027 reflects these structural barriers, though an unexpected diplomatic settlement or rapid shift in member positions could still alter the near-term outlook.