US diplomatic initiatives under the Trump administration, including July 2026 discussions with Ukraine on proposals to halt aerial attacks and revive talks, have shaped trader views amid ongoing Russian demands for Ukrainian neutrality, territorial concessions in the east and south, and military restrictions. A US-brokered three-day ceasefire in May 2026 enabled prisoner swaps but failed to extend into broader negotiations, consistent with Kremlin statements that a full agreement remains distant. Geneva and Abu Dhabi trilateral meetings earlier in 2026 produced limited progress on monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees, while battlefield stalemate and mutual accusations of violations continue. Upcoming diplomatic contacts and any signals of de-escalation or escalation could influence assessments of timelines for a mutually agreed halt in hostilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,782,349 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
15%
August 31
6%
December 31
34%
$5,782,349 Vol.
October 31
$825,845 Vol.
15%
August 31
$334,801 Vol.
6%
December 31
$2,084,372 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic initiatives under the Trump administration, including July 2026 discussions with Ukraine on proposals to halt aerial attacks and revive talks, have shaped trader views amid ongoing Russian demands for Ukrainian neutrality, territorial concessions in the east and south, and military restrictions. A US-brokered three-day ceasefire in May 2026 enabled prisoner swaps but failed to extend into broader negotiations, consistent with Kremlin statements that a full agreement remains distant. Geneva and Abu Dhabi trilateral meetings earlier in 2026 produced limited progress on monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees, while battlefield stalemate and mutual accusations of violations continue. Upcoming diplomatic contacts and any signals of de-escalation or escalation could influence assessments of timelines for a mutually agreed halt in hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$5,782,349Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic initiatives under the Trump administration, including July 2026 discussions with Ukraine on proposals to halt aerial attacks and revive talks, have shaped trader views amid ongoing Russian demands for Ukrainian neutrality, territorial concessions in the east and south, and military restrictions. A US-brokered three-day ceasefire in May 2026 enabled prisoner swaps but failed to extend into broader negotiations, consistent with Kremlin statements that a full agreement remains distant. Geneva and Abu Dhabi trilateral meetings earlier in 2026 produced limited progress on monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees, while battlefield stalemate and mutual accusations of violations continue. Upcoming diplomatic contacts and any signals of de-escalation or escalation could influence assessments of timelines for a mutually agreed halt in hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,782,349Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US diplomatic initiatives under the Trump administration, including July 2026 discussions with Ukraine on proposals to halt aerial attacks and revive talks, have shaped trader views amid ongoing Russian demands for Ukrainian neutrality, territorial concessions in the east and south, and military restrictions. A US-brokered three-day ceasefire in May 2026 enabled prisoner swaps but failed to extend into broader negotiations, consistent with Kremlin statements that a full agreement remains distant. Geneva and Abu Dhabi trilateral meetings earlier in 2026 produced limited progress on monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees, while battlefield stalemate and mutual accusations of violations continue. Upcoming diplomatic contacts and any signals of de-escalation or escalation could influence assessments of timelines for a mutually agreed halt in hostilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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