Skip to main content

Para mag-trade sa US, pumunta sa polymarket.us

icon for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Politika·Russia

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

icon for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Politika·Russia

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

$7,734,128 Vol.

Oct 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,734,128 Vol.

Polymarket

October 31

$1,671,693 Vol.

8%

November 30

$4,916 Vol.

9%

December 31

$2,646,461 Vol.

22%

January 31, 2027

$27,376 Vol.

30%

February 28, 2027

$4,933 Vol.

35%

March 31, 2027

$71,472 Vol.

39%

April 30, 2027

$1,224 Vol.

43%

May 31, 2027

$2,091 Vol.

52%

June 30, 2027

$151,176 Vol.

56%

July 31, 2027

$1,450 Vol.

56%

August 31, 2027

$679 Vol.

57%

September 30, 2027

$866 Vol.

56%

October 31, 2027

$3,287 Vol.

61%

November 30, 2027

$1,204 Vol.

62%

December 31, 2027

$21,793 Vol.

71%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic efforts under the Trump administration have driven recent momentum toward renewed trilateral talks among Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visiting Moscow and Kyiv in early September to explore de-escalation options. Both sides have signaled readiness for follow-on negotiations in October focused on practical steps such as limits on strikes against energy infrastructure and safe Black Sea navigation, though Russia has rejected broader frontline ceasefires. Persistent disagreements over territorial control, particularly Russian demands for additional Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk, remain the central barrier, while ongoing aerial exchanges and prior failed rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva underscore the challenges to any comprehensive agreement by a near-term date.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,734,128
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic efforts under the Trump administration have driven recent momentum toward renewed trilateral talks among Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visiting Moscow and Kyiv in early September to explore de-escalation options. Both sides have signaled readiness for follow-on negotiations in October focused on practical steps such as limits on strikes against energy infrastructure and safe Black Sea navigation, though Russia has rejected broader frontline ceasefires. Persistent disagreements over territorial control, particularly Russian demands for additional Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk, remain the central barrier, while ongoing aerial exchanges and prior failed rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva underscore the challenges to any comprehensive agreement by a near-term date.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,734,128
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Kaugnay

icon for Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

68%
icon for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

14%
icon for Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

7%

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 18 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "December 31, 2027" sa 71%, sinusundan ng "November 30, 2027" sa 62%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 71¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 71% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" ay naka-generate ng $7.7 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong May 12, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?," i-browse ang 18 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" ay "December 31, 2027" sa 71%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 71% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "November 30, 2027" sa 62%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.