Russia's ongoing military operations remain concentrated in Ukraine through mid-2026, with forces conducting incremental advances in Donetsk oblast and long-range strikes but showing no capacity or intent to open a new conventional front elsewhere. Analysts note depleted conventional forces, high defense spending prioritized for the current conflict, and reconstitution timelines pointing to potential NATO risks only after 2027. Official statements and hybrid activities have focused on testing defenses and supporting the Ukrainian theater rather than signaling imminent invasions of additional countries. Trader consensus at 91.5% for no new invasion in 2026 reflects this sustained focus and absence of triggering developments within the resolution window.