Russia’s ongoing campaign in Ukraine, marked by high casualties exceeding 1.5 million and stalled advances toward full control of Donetsk Oblast, continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources as of mid-September 2026. Recent developments include intensified hybrid actions such as drone incursions into Polish and Lithuanian airspace and reported sabotage plots in Europe, alongside preparations for possible “stealth” mobilization after the September State Duma elections. Western assessments indicate these steps aim to sustain pressure on Ukraine and test NATO resolve through limited strikes or probes rather than enabling a conventional invasion of another sovereign state. Analysts note insufficient troop concentrations, equipment shortages, and economic strains that constrain Russia’s ability to open a new major front before year-end, supporting the market’s strong consensus against such an outcome.