Sustained U.S.-Mexico security cooperation, including intelligence sharing, Mexican National Guard deployments to the northern border, and joint operations against cartels such as the February 2026 killing of CJNG leader El Mencho, has kept bilateral relations focused on incremental enforcement rather than unilateral U.S. military action. President Trump's repeated references to potential strikes on cartels have prompted Mexican diplomatic pushback and visible sovereignty assertions by President Sheinbaum, while economic integration under USMCA review and declining fentanyl flows reinforce incentives against escalation. U.S. troop movements remain limited to domestic border enforcement or limited advisory roles. With roughly four months left in the resolution window, trader consensus at 97.7% for no invasion reflects these structural barriers; a late-year border crisis or policy reversal could still shift odds, though legal, logistical, and alliance constraints make such an outcome unlikely.