Recent diplomatic momentum, including a June 14 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reduce regional U.S. military assets, and initiate 60-day nuclear talks, has reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. U.S.-Israeli operations since February have relied on airstrikes, targeted strikes, and naval measures rather than territorial control, with extended ceasefires and direct negotiations signaling de-escalation under the Trump administration. Logistical barriers, escalation risks with regional actors, and political costs of committing ground forces further align with the 88.5% implied probability for no invasion, as markets reflect consensus on sustained diplomatic pathways over full-scale offensive shifts.