Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges, including joint U.S.-Israel airstrikes launched February 28, 2026, that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and missile sites, have remained limited to air and naval operations rather than ground forces. Multiple ceasefires, including a two-week pause in April and ongoing June 2026 talks mediated in part by Pakistan and China, have shifted focus to a potential comprehensive agreement restricting uranium enrichment, ending the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and winding down hostilities. The Trump administration has signaled preference for negotiated outcomes over occupation, citing high costs and risks of escalation, while Pentagon contingency planning for limited ground actions has not advanced to deployment. With a memorandum of understanding reportedly imminent and no scheduled large-scale troop commitments before year-end, traders assign an 87.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion before 2027.