**US-Iran tensions remain elevated following the February 2026 onset of airstrikes and the subsequent low-intensity conflict, yet trader consensus against a full-scale US invasion before 2027 reflects the sustained emphasis on air and naval operations, sanctions, and intermittent diplomacy rather than ground commitments.** Recent developments, including indirect talks at the UN General Assembly in September 2026 and statements from President Trump balancing threats of major strikes with openness to negotiations, underscore continued preference for calibrated pressure over large-scale troop deployments. Iran’s damaged but persistent missile and asymmetric capabilities, combined with the economic and military costs of occupying territory, have reinforced assessments that stated US objectives—degrading nuclear and missile threats while addressing Strait of Hormuz navigation—can be pursued without invasion. The 85.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with this pattern of escalation short of boots-on-the-ground operations.