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Heopolitika·Gitnang Silangan

Paglusob ba ng US sa Iran bago ang 2027?

Market icon
Heopolitika·Gitnang Silangan

Paglusob ba ng US sa Iran bago ang 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Oo

25% tsansa
Polymarket

$11,982,277 Vol.

Oo

25% tsansa
Polymarket

$11,982,277 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US trader consensus prices a 75.5% implied probability on "No" U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by de-escalation signals amid the ongoing conflict initiated by coordinated US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership in late February 2026. A temporary two-week ceasefire took hold on April 8 after Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad, with Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz on April 17 despite a US naval blockade pressuring for a comprehensive deal on nuclear curbs and sanctions relief. Senate Republicans twice rejected war powers resolutions to constrain President Trump's military actions in the past week, yet no ground troop deployments for occupation have materialized, lowering full-invasion risks. Resumed negotiations this weekend could solidify peace or prompt limited escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$11,982,277
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US trader consensus prices a 75.5% implied probability on "No" U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by de-escalation signals amid the ongoing conflict initiated by coordinated US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership in late February 2026. A temporary two-week ceasefire took hold on April 8 after Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad, with Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz on April 17 despite a US naval blockade pressuring for a comprehensive deal on nuclear curbs and sanctions relief. Senate Republicans twice rejected war powers resolutions to constrain President Trump's military actions in the past week, yet no ground troop deployments for occupation have materialized, lowering full-invasion risks. Resumed negotiations this weekend could solidify peace or prompt limited escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$11,982,277
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Paglusob ba ng US sa Iran bago ang 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 2 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Sasakupin ba ng U.S. ang Iran bago ang 2027?" sa 25%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 25¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 25% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Paglusob ba ng US sa Iran bago ang 2027?" ay naka-generate ng $12 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 5, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Paglusob ba ng US sa Iran bago ang 2027?," i-browse ang 2 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Paglusob ba ng US sa Iran bago ang 2027?" ay "Sasakupin ba ng U.S. ang Iran bago ang 2027?" sa 25%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 25% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Paglusob ba ng US sa Iran bago ang 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.