Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. On June 14, 2026, mediators announced a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran to formally end hostilities from the 2026 conflict, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, reducing regional U.S. military assets, and advancing 60-day nuclear talks. The deal follows February U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, a spring ceasefire, and early June exchanges of missiles and drones involving U.S. forces, Iranian proxies, and Israeli responses. With formal signing scheduled for June 19 and no verified U.S. preparations for large-scale troop deployment or regime-change operations, the current trajectory favors negotiated de-escalation over invasion within the remaining months of 2026.