Ongoing military operations and Hezbollah's rejection of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement have reinforced trader expectations against normalization before 2027. That trilateral deal established a sequenced process for Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones and verified disarmament of non-state groups before any Israeli redeployment, yet Hezbollah leaders declared it null and void while Israeli forces consolidated a southern security zone and conducted strikes into September. Subsequent ambassadorial talks have produced incremental implementation steps but no diplomatic breakthrough or mutual recognition. Full normalization would require Lebanon to meet constitutional and security preconditions amid persistent territorial disputes and regional tensions, scenarios that remain distant given the conditional, performance-based structure of current arrangements.