Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence—delivering Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 flagship in mid-July 2026—drives trader focus on a K4 successor, yet no official K4 announcement, model card, or release has occurred as of mid-September. The September 11 rollout of K2.8 Preview on Kimi Code, positioned as near-K3 performance with greater reasoning efficiency, signals ongoing optimization of the existing line rather than a full next-generation leap. Reports indicate Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger model, while recent capacity strains, routing of some K3 traffic to smaller variants, and external accusations of model distillation add uncertainty. Traders weigh historical two-to-three-month cycles against these near-term constraints when assessing release odds by late 2026.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateKimi K4 released by…?
Kimi K4 released by…?
$17,843 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
4%
December 31, 2026
6%
$17,843 Vol.
October 31, 2026
$9,518 Vol.
4%
December 31, 2026
$8,325 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence—delivering Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 flagship in mid-July 2026—drives trader focus on a K4 successor, yet no official K4 announcement, model card, or release has occurred as of mid-September. The September 11 rollout of K2.8 Preview on Kimi Code, positioned as near-K3 performance with greater reasoning efficiency, signals ongoing optimization of the existing line rather than a full next-generation leap. Reports indicate Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger model, while recent capacity strains, routing of some K3 traffic to smaller variants, and external accusations of model distillation add uncertainty. Traders weigh historical two-to-three-month cycles against these near-term constraints when assessing release odds by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$17,843Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence—delivering Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 flagship in mid-July 2026—drives trader focus on a K4 successor, yet no official K4 announcement, model card, or release has occurred as of mid-September. The September 11 rollout of K2.8 Preview on Kimi Code, positioned as near-K3 performance with greater reasoning efficiency, signals ongoing optimization of the existing line rather than a full next-generation leap. Reports indicate Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger model, while recent capacity strains, routing of some K3 traffic to smaller variants, and external accusations of model distillation add uncertainty. Traders weigh historical two-to-three-month cycles against these near-term constraints when assessing release odds by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,843Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence—delivering Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 flagship in mid-July 2026—drives trader focus on a K4 successor, yet no official K4 announcement, model card, or release has occurred as of mid-September. The September 11 rollout of K2.8 Preview on Kimi Code, positioned as near-K3 performance with greater reasoning efficiency, signals ongoing optimization of the existing line rather than a full next-generation leap. Reports indicate Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger model, while recent capacity strains, routing of some K3 traffic to smaller variants, and external accusations of model distillation add uncertainty. Traders weigh historical two-to-three-month cycles against these near-term constraints when assessing release odds by late 2026.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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