Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district for the 2026 House election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 92.5% implied probability. The district’s partisan voting index and recent electoral trends favor Democrats, while Mannion benefits from incumbency and limited primary opposition. Republican nominee Kailee Buller has raised modest funds but faces structural headwinds in a district that has trended Democratic. Key upcoming factors include the November general election timeline and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or significant turnout surge for Republicans.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNY-22 House Election Winner
NY-22 House Election Winner
$13,478 Vol.
$13,478 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
8%
$13,478 Vol.
$13,478 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,365 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$3,113 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district for the 2026 House election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 92.5% implied probability. The district’s partisan voting index and recent electoral trends favor Democrats, while Mannion benefits from incumbency and limited primary opposition. Republican nominee Kailee Buller has raised modest funds but faces structural headwinds in a district that has trended Democratic. Key upcoming factors include the November general election timeline and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or significant turnout surge for Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$13,478Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district for the 2026 House election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 92.5% implied probability. The district’s partisan voting index and recent electoral trends favor Democrats, while Mannion benefits from incumbency and limited primary opposition. Republican nominee Kailee Buller has raised modest funds but faces structural headwinds in a district that has trended Democratic. Key upcoming factors include the November general election timeline and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or significant turnout surge for Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,478Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district for the 2026 House election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 92.5% implied probability. The district’s partisan voting index and recent electoral trends favor Democrats, while Mannion benefits from incumbency and limited primary opposition. Republican nominee Kailee Buller has raised modest funds but faces structural headwinds in a district that has trended Democratic. Key upcoming factors include the November general election timeline and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or significant turnout surge for Republicans.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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