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icon for São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Politika·Brazil

São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Politika·Brazil

São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place

Marina Silva 27%

André do Prado 25%

Guilherme Derrite 21%

Maíra de Souza 20%

Polymarket
BAGO

Marina Silva 27%

André do Prado 25%

Guilherme Derrite 21%

Maíra de Souza 20%

Polymarket
BAGO
icon for Marina Silva

Marina Silva

$20 Vol.

27%

icon for André do Prado

André do Prado

$20 Vol.

25%

icon for Guilherme Derrite

Guilherme Derrite

$40 Vol.

25%

icon for Maíra de Souza

Maíra de Souza

$20 Vol.

20%

icon for Weller Gonçalves

Weller Gonçalves

$58 Vol.

21%

icon for Simone Tebet

Simone Tebet

$20 Vol.

19%

icon for Ednelson Cesaretti

Ednelson Cesaretti

$20 Vol.

18%

icon for Soninha Francine

Soninha Francine

$20 Vol.

18%

icon for Geraldo Rufino

Geraldo Rufino

$20 Vol.

18%

icon for Salles

Salles

$20 Vol.

11%

icon for Petter Maahs

Petter Maahs

$42 Vol.

10%

icon for Marcio Alves

Marcio Alves

$40 Vol.

8%

icon for William Teixeira

William Teixeira

$40 Vol.

8%

icon for Dra. Eliana Ferreira

Dra. Eliana Ferreira

$59 Vol.

6%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In São Paulo’s October 4 Senate contest for two seats, trader pricing reflects a highly fragmented field of more than a dozen registered candidates, with recent polls showing Simone Tebet (PSB), Marina Silva (Rede), Guilherme Derrite (PP), and André do Prado (PL) clustered within the margin of error near the top. Official campaigning opened August 16, intensifying competition among center-left figures tied to the Lula administration and right-leaning names associated with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and former President Bolsonaro. The two-seat structure and absence of a dominant frontrunner keep implied probabilities compressed, as modest shifts in turnout among urban voters, evangelical blocs, or undecideds could reorder the ranking. No single late-breaking event has yet consolidated support behind one contender.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$438
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In São Paulo’s October 4 Senate contest for two seats, trader pricing reflects a highly fragmented field of more than a dozen registered candidates, with recent polls showing Simone Tebet (PSB), Marina Silva (Rede), Guilherme Derrite (PP), and André do Prado (PL) clustered within the margin of error near the top. Official campaigning opened August 16, intensifying competition among center-left figures tied to the Lula administration and right-leaning names associated with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and former President Bolsonaro. The two-seat structure and absence of a dominant frontrunner keep implied probabilities compressed, as modest shifts in turnout among urban voters, evangelical blocs, or undecideds could reorder the ranking. No single late-breaking event has yet consolidated support behind one contender.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$438
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Kaugnay

icon for Will Petter Maahs win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Will Petter Maahs win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

24%
icon for Will Gleisi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?

Will Gleisi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?

43%
icon for Will Helder win the most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?

Will Helder win the most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?

91%

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 14 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Marina Silva" sa 27%, sinusundan ng "André do Prado" sa 25%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 27¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 27% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Aug 17, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place," i-browse ang 14 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place" ay "Marina Silva" sa 27%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 27% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "André do Prado" sa 25%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.