The Atlantic hurricane season's official June 1 start date, combined with the passage of May 31 without any tropical cyclone reaching sustained 74 mph winds, underpins the 100% market-implied probability for no formation. Climatological data from NOAA show that main development region sea surface temperatures typically remain below the 26.5°C threshold for rapid intensification during May, while stronger vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air suppress organization. Historical records confirm only a handful of pre-June hurricanes in the basin over decades, with none occurring in recent years. No new model runs or observations altered this outlook before the cutoff, though an atypical early warm pool or steering pattern shift could theoretically enable rare formation in future seasons.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$54,941 Vol.
$54,941 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$54,941 Vol.
$54,941 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The Atlantic hurricane season's official June 1 start date, combined with the passage of May 31 without any tropical cyclone reaching sustained 74 mph winds, underpins the 100% market-implied probability for no formation. Climatological data from NOAA show that main development region sea surface temperatures typically remain below the 26.5°C threshold for rapid intensification during May, while stronger vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air suppress organization. Historical records confirm only a handful of pre-June hurricanes in the basin over decades, with none occurring in recent years. No new model runs or observations altered this outlook before the cutoff, though an atypical early warm pool or steering pattern shift could theoretically enable rare formation in future seasons.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$54,941Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The Atlantic hurricane season's official June 1 start date, combined with the passage of May 31 without any tropical cyclone reaching sustained 74 mph winds, underpins the 100% market-implied probability for no formation. Climatological data from NOAA show that main development region sea surface temperatures typically remain below the 26.5°C threshold for rapid intensification during May, while stronger vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air suppress organization. Historical records confirm only a handful of pre-June hurricanes in the basin over decades, with none occurring in recent years. No new model runs or observations altered this outlook before the cutoff, though an atypical early warm pool or steering pattern shift could theoretically enable rare formation in future seasons.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$54,941Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
The Atlantic hurricane season's official June 1 start date, combined with the passage of May 31 without any tropical cyclone reaching sustained 74 mph winds, underpins the 100% market-implied probability for no formation. Climatological data from NOAA show that main development region sea surface temperatures typically remain below the 26.5°C threshold for rapid intensification during May, while stronger vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air suppress organization. Historical records confirm only a handful of pre-June hurricanes in the basin over decades, with none occurring in recent years. No new model runs or observations altered this outlook before the cutoff, though an atypical early warm pool or steering pattern shift could theoretically enable rare formation in future seasons.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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