Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has described Hezbollah disarmament as non-negotiable yet insists on a peaceful process to avoid civil conflict, while the Lebanese Armed Forces advances limited pilot zones south of the Litani River with modest weapons seizures. The June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement conditions Israeli withdrawal on verifiable disarmament steps, but Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected it outright, labeling the linkage a humiliation and warning of resistance. Israeli officials condition further progress on stronger Lebanese army performance, with October Rome talks and the December UNIFIL mandate end as near-term pressure points. Trader consensus prices low odds for an official Hezbollah announcement of full or phased disarmament by late 2026, reflecting the group's sustained rejection and Lebanon's incremental, dialogue-focused approach.

Apr 25 2026

Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a

April 30 rises to 4%4%

Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the

Apr 23 2026

Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to

April 30 dips to 0%4%

Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %

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