Bolivia's former President Evo Morales faces an active arrest warrant on aggravated human trafficking charges, stemming from a January 2025 court order, yet traders imply just a 15.5% chance of detention by May 31, reflecting his entrenched position in the Chapare stronghold protected by cocalero unions and MAS party loyalists. His February 2026 reappearance after a seven-week public absence—sparked by rumors of flight amid Venezuela tensions—reaffirmed local control without advancing custody efforts, as government vows to arrest him for an impending trial remain unfulfilled. No verified law enforcement operations or escalations have occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring historical barriers like supporter blockades and political divisions that have thwarted prior attempts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiYENİ
YENİ
31 May 2026
YENİ
YENİ
31 May 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Bolivia's former President Evo Morales faces an active arrest warrant on aggravated human trafficking charges, stemming from a January 2025 court order, yet traders imply just a 15.5% chance of detention by May 31, reflecting his entrenched position in the Chapare stronghold protected by cocalero unions and MAS party loyalists. His February 2026 reappearance after a seven-week public absence—sparked by rumors of flight amid Venezuela tensions—reaffirmed local control without advancing custody efforts, as government vows to arrest him for an impending trial remain unfulfilled. No verified law enforcement operations or escalations have occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring historical barriers like supporter blockades and political divisions that have thwarted prior attempts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Hacim
$9,146Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Bolivia's former President Evo Morales faces an active arrest warrant on aggravated human trafficking charges, stemming from a January 2025 court order, yet traders imply just a 15.5% chance of detention by May 31, reflecting his entrenched position in the Chapare stronghold protected by cocalero unions and MAS party loyalists. His February 2026 reappearance after a seven-week public absence—sparked by rumors of flight amid Venezuela tensions—reaffirmed local control without advancing custody efforts, as government vows to arrest him for an impending trial remain unfulfilled. No verified law enforcement operations or escalations have occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring historical barriers like supporter blockades and political divisions that have thwarted prior attempts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$9,146Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bolivia's former President Evo Morales faces an active arrest warrant on aggravated human trafficking charges, stemming from a January 2025 court order, yet traders imply just a 15.5% chance of detention by May 31, reflecting his entrenched position in the Chapare stronghold protected by cocalero unions and MAS party loyalists. His February 2026 reappearance after a seven-week public absence—sparked by rumors of flight amid Venezuela tensions—reaffirmed local control without advancing custody efforts, as government vows to arrest him for an impending trial remain unfulfilled. No verified law enforcement operations or escalations have occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring historical barriers like supporter blockades and political divisions that have thwarted prior attempts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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