Traders assign just 4% implied probability to a US announcement of military support for Iran opposition by April 30, reflecting the absence of major internal uprisings since January 2026 protests were brutally suppressed, killing thousands amid regime crackdowns. US strategy in the ongoing 2026 Iran war emphasizes airstrikes and new weapons like directed-energy systems to degrade nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, and air defenses—destroying over 80% per recent assessments—rather than arming fragmented opposition groups. Growing American public disapproval, per March Pew polling, and signals of de-escalation like a short truce and potential talks further dampen prospects. April 14 military moves heightened tensions, but no policy pivot toward opposition aid has materialized.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiABD, İran muhalefetine askeri destek verdiğini açıkladı...?
ABD, İran muhalefetine askeri destek verdiğini açıkladı...?
$453,490 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
30 Nisan
4%
$453,490 Hac.
30 Nisan
$222,330 Hac.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Traders assign just 4% implied probability to a US announcement of military support for Iran opposition by April 30, reflecting the absence of major internal uprisings since January 2026 protests were brutally suppressed, killing thousands amid regime crackdowns. US strategy in the ongoing 2026 Iran war emphasizes airstrikes and new weapons like directed-energy systems to degrade nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, and air defenses—destroying over 80% per recent assessments—rather than arming fragmented opposition groups. Growing American public disapproval, per March Pew polling, and signals of de-escalation like a short truce and potential talks further dampen prospects. April 14 military moves heightened tensions, but no policy pivot toward opposition aid has materialized.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
Hacim
$453,490Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Traders assign just 4% implied probability to a US announcement of military support for Iran opposition by April 30, reflecting the absence of major internal uprisings since January 2026 protests were brutally suppressed, killing thousands amid regime crackdowns. US strategy in the ongoing 2026 Iran war emphasizes airstrikes and new weapons like directed-energy systems to degrade nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, and air defenses—destroying over 80% per recent assessments—rather than arming fragmented opposition groups. Growing American public disapproval, per March Pew polling, and signals of de-escalation like a short truce and potential talks further dampen prospects. April 14 military moves heightened tensions, but no policy pivot toward opposition aid has materialized.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Hacim
$453,490Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign just 4% implied probability to a US announcement of military support for Iran opposition by April 30, reflecting the absence of major internal uprisings since January 2026 protests were brutally suppressed, killing thousands amid regime crackdowns. US strategy in the ongoing 2026 Iran war emphasizes airstrikes and new weapons like directed-energy systems to degrade nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, and air defenses—destroying over 80% per recent assessments—rather than arming fragmented opposition groups. Growing American public disapproval, per March Pew polling, and signals of de-escalation like a short truce and potential talks further dampen prospects. April 14 military moves heightened tensions, but no policy pivot toward opposition aid has materialized.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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