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Jeopolitik·Bölgesel Yayılma

KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?

Market icon
Jeopolitik·Bölgesel Yayılma

KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?

1% olasılık
Polymarket

$43,015 Hac.

1% olasılık
Polymarket

$43,015 Hac.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' near-certain consensus against a Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) independence declaration by April 30 stems from the complete absence of preparatory steps, such as referendums or official statements from KRG President Nechirvan Barzani or Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, amid ongoing economic diplomacy with Baghdad. Over the past month, KRG efforts have focused on resuming oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, lifting a federal trade embargo imposed since January, and advancing US-led Peshmerga unification slated for September—prioritizing federal revenue-sharing and stability over secession. Iraq's constitution affirms KRG autonomy as a federal region, while Turkey and Iran staunchly oppose independence, echoing the 2017 referendum's military backlash. Only an unforeseen Baghdad collapse or abrupt regional realignment could shift this, though timelines make it implausible.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.

A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.

The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$43,015
Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' near-certain consensus against a Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) independence declaration by April 30 stems from the complete absence of preparatory steps, such as referendums or official statements from KRG President Nechirvan Barzani or Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, amid ongoing economic diplomacy with Baghdad. Over the past month, KRG efforts have focused on resuming oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, lifting a federal trade embargo imposed since January, and advancing US-led Peshmerga unification slated for September—prioritizing federal revenue-sharing and stability over secession. Iraq's constitution affirms KRG autonomy as a federal region, while Turkey and Iran staunchly oppose independence, echoing the 2017 referendum's military backlash. Only an unforeseen Baghdad collapse or abrupt regional realignment could shift this, though timelines make it implausible.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.

A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.

The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$43,015
Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?", yatırımcıların bu olayın gerçekleşip gerçekleşmeyeceğine inançlarına göre "Evet" veya "Hayır" hisseleri alıp sattığı Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut kitle kaynaklı olasılık "Yes" için 1%'dir. Örneğin, "Evet" 1¢ fiyatındaysa, piyasa toplu olarak bu olayın gerçekleşme olasılığını 1% olarak belirler. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?" toplam $43K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Mar 6, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için cevabın "Evet" mi yoksa "Hayır" mı olacağına inandığınızı seçin. Her tarafın piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını yansıtan bir güncel fiyatı vardır. Miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. "Evet" hisseleri satın alırsanız ve sonuç "Evet" olarak çözümlenirse, her hisse 1$ öder. "Hayır" olarak çözümlenirse, "Evet" hisseleriniz 0$ öder. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?" için mevcut olasılık "Yes" için 1%'dir. Bu, Polymarket topluluğunun şu anda bu olayın gerçekleşme olasılığını 1% olarak gördüğü anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar gerçek işlemlere dayalı olarak gerçek zamanlı güncellenir ve piyasanın ne olmasını beklediğine dair sürekli güncellenen bir sinyal sağlar.

"KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.