Amid the 2026 US-Israel war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, pausing major hostilities while US and Israeli operations on April 11 suppressed Iran's missile launchers. No country beyond the US and Israel has initiated drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil or embassies, despite Iran's retaliatory attacks on Gulf neighbors and partial Strait of Hormuz blockade, which Chinese-Iranian tankers challenged April 14. Trader consensus reflects low odds for additional actors like Saudi Arabia or UAE absent direct provocation, with the ceasefire's April 22 expiration and US Senate war powers votes as key upcoming catalysts for potential de-escalation or renewed tensions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiBaşka bir ülke... tarafından İran'a karşı askeri eylemde bulunacak mı?
Başka bir ülke... tarafından İran'a karşı askeri eylemde bulunacak mı?
$1,227,326 Hac.
15 Nis 2026
15 Nisan
1%
30 Nisan
7%
$1,227,326 Hac.
15 Nisan
$838,559 Hac.
1%
30 Nisan
$388,770 Hac.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 US-Israel war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, pausing major hostilities while US and Israeli operations on April 11 suppressed Iran's missile launchers. No country beyond the US and Israel has initiated drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil or embassies, despite Iran's retaliatory attacks on Gulf neighbors and partial Strait of Hormuz blockade, which Chinese-Iranian tankers challenged April 14. Trader consensus reflects low odds for additional actors like Saudi Arabia or UAE absent direct provocation, with the ceasefire's April 22 expiration and US Senate war powers votes as key upcoming catalysts for potential de-escalation or renewed tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Hacim
$1,227,326Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 US-Israel war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, pausing major hostilities while US and Israeli operations on April 11 suppressed Iran's missile launchers. No country beyond the US and Israel has initiated drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil or embassies, despite Iran's retaliatory attacks on Gulf neighbors and partial Strait of Hormuz blockade, which Chinese-Iranian tankers challenged April 14. Trader consensus reflects low odds for additional actors like Saudi Arabia or UAE absent direct provocation, with the ceasefire's April 22 expiration and US Senate war powers votes as key upcoming catalysts for potential de-escalation or renewed tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Hacim
$1,227,326Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 US-Israel war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, pausing major hostilities while US and Israeli operations on April 11 suppressed Iran's missile launchers. No country beyond the US and Israel has initiated drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil or embassies, despite Iran's retaliatory attacks on Gulf neighbors and partial Strait of Hormuz blockade, which Chinese-Iranian tankers challenged April 14. Trader consensus reflects low odds for additional actors like Saudi Arabia or UAE absent direct provocation, with the ceasefire's April 22 expiration and US Senate war powers votes as key upcoming catalysts for potential de-escalation or renewed tensions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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