Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors subdued vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, with market-implied probabilities assigning 41.5% to 4-7 ships and 28.0% to 8-11 ships, reflecting ship-tracking data from sources like MarineTraffic and Kpler showing daily averages of 6-12 vessels over the past two weeks—down over 90% from pre-conflict norms of 130-140 ships. This positioning stems from the ongoing 2026 US-Iran crisis, including Iran's February closure declaration, a fragile April ceasefire that failed to restore commercial flows, and the US naval blockade initiated April 14, which has deterred non-Iran-linked traffic despite minimal initial disruption on day one (eight transits reported). Persistent threats and 22 attacks since late February sustain caution, with resolution imminent amid potential last-minute escalations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
4-7 42%
8-11 28%
<4 9%
12-15 9%
YENİ
YENİ
19 Nis 2026
<4
9%
4-7
42%
8-11
28%
12-15
9%
16-19
6%
20+
3%
4-7 42%
8-11 28%
<4 9%
12-15 9%
YENİ
YENİ
19 Nis 2026
<4
$1,619 Hac.
9%
4-7
$946 Hac.
42%
8-11
$567 Hac.
28%
12-15
$481 Hac.
9%
16-19
$529 Hac.
6%
20+
$2,858 Hac.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors subdued vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, with market-implied probabilities assigning 41.5% to 4-7 ships and 28.0% to 8-11 ships, reflecting ship-tracking data from sources like MarineTraffic and Kpler showing daily averages of 6-12 vessels over the past two weeks—down over 90% from pre-conflict norms of 130-140 ships. This positioning stems from the ongoing 2026 US-Iran crisis, including Iran's February closure declaration, a fragile April ceasefire that failed to restore commercial flows, and the US naval blockade initiated April 14, which has deterred non-Iran-linked traffic despite minimal initial disruption on day one (eight transits reported). Persistent threats and 22 attacks since late February sustain caution, with resolution imminent amid potential last-minute escalations.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Hacim
$7,001Bitiş Tarihi
19 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors subdued vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, with market-implied probabilities assigning 41.5% to 4-7 ships and 28.0% to 8-11 ships, reflecting ship-tracking data from sources like MarineTraffic and Kpler showing daily averages of 6-12 vessels over the past two weeks—down over 90% from pre-conflict norms of 130-140 ships. This positioning stems from the ongoing 2026 US-Iran crisis, including Iran's February closure declaration, a fragile April ceasefire that failed to restore commercial flows, and the US naval blockade initiated April 14, which has deterred non-Iran-linked traffic despite minimal initial disruption on day one (eight transits reported). Persistent threats and 22 attacks since late February sustain caution, with resolution imminent amid potential last-minute escalations.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Hacim
$7,001Bitiş Tarihi
19 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors subdued vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, with market-implied probabilities assigning 41.5% to 4-7 ships and 28.0% to 8-11 ships, reflecting ship-tracking data from sources like MarineTraffic and Kpler showing daily averages of 6-12 vessels over the past two weeks—down over 90% from pre-conflict norms of 130-140 ships. This positioning stems from the ongoing 2026 US-Iran crisis, including Iran's February closure declaration, a fragile April ceasefire that failed to restore commercial flows, and the US naval blockade initiated April 14, which has deterred non-Iran-linked traffic despite minimal initial disruption on day one (eight transits reported). Persistent threats and 22 attacks since late February sustain caution, with resolution imminent amid potential last-minute escalations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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