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Jeopolitik·İsrail

Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

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Jeopolitik·İsrail

Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

70% olasılık
Polymarket

$83,368 Hac.

70% olasılık
Polymarket

$83,368 Hac.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon. The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon. -An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means. Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify. Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire. Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.President Trump's recent phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, urging scaled-back military operations in Lebanon to safeguard the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, has fueled trader consensus at 74% for his endorsement of an Israeli-Lebanon ceasefire by April 30. This follows initial statements excluding Hezbollah from the April 7 two-week Iran truce amid continued Israeli airstrikes, but shifted with US-brokered direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington this week—marking the first in over 30 years. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hailed the discussions as historic, while Israel's Security Cabinet meets today on a potential truce, heightening expectations of Trump's public support to de-escalate amid regional tensions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.

The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.

Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.

Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.

Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
Hacim
$83,368
Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 9, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon. The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon. -An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means. Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify. Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire. Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon. The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon. -An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means. Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify. Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire. Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.President Trump's recent phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, urging scaled-back military operations in Lebanon to safeguard the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, has fueled trader consensus at 74% for his endorsement of an Israeli-Lebanon ceasefire by April 30. This follows initial statements excluding Hezbollah from the April 7 two-week Iran truce amid continued Israeli airstrikes, but shifted with US-brokered direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington this week—marking the first in over 30 years. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hailed the discussions as historic, while Israel's Security Cabinet meets today on a potential truce, heightening expectations of Trump's public support to de-escalate amid regional tensions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.

The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.

Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.

Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.

Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
Hacim
$83,368
Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 9, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon. The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon. -An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means. Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify. Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire. Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.

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Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?", yatırımcıların bu olayın gerçekleşip gerçekleşmeyeceğine inançlarına göre "Evet" veya "Hayır" hisseleri alıp sattığı Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut kitle kaynaklı olasılık "Yes" için 70%'dir. Örneğin, "Evet" 70¢ fiyatındaysa, piyasa toplu olarak bu olayın gerçekleşme olasılığını 70% olarak belirler. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?" toplam $83.4K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Apr 9, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için cevabın "Evet" mi yoksa "Hayır" mı olacağına inandığınızı seçin. Her tarafın piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını yansıtan bir güncel fiyatı vardır. Miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. "Evet" hisseleri satın alırsanız ve sonuç "Evet" olarak çözümlenirse, her hisse 1$ öder. "Hayır" olarak çözümlenirse, "Evet" hisseleriniz 0$ öder. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?" için mevcut olasılık "Yes" için 70%'dir. Bu, Polymarket topluluğunun şu anda bu olayın gerçekleşme olasılığını 70% olarak gördüğü anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar gerçek işlemlere dayalı olarak gerçek zamanlı güncellenir ve piyasanın ne olmasını beklediğine dair sürekli güncellenen bir sinyal sağlar.

"Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.