Trader consensus favors "No" at 73% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such diplomatic ruptures amid stable bilateral relations despite ongoing tensions. In March 2026, South Africa's International Relations Minister summoned U.S. Ambassador Brent Bozell III over critical comments, prompting EFF calls for his expulsion, but the government refrained from declaring him persona non grata, prioritizing dialogue. President Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career U.S. ambassadors from African and other posts sparked concerns over destabilization but elicited no reciprocal foreign expulsions. Absent fresh escalations like sanctions disputes or espionage allegations, traders view the high threshold for ambassador expulsions—typically reserved for severe breakdowns—as a barrier through year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$13,031 Hac.
$13,031 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
$13,031 Hac.
$13,031 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 73% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such diplomatic ruptures amid stable bilateral relations despite ongoing tensions. In March 2026, South Africa's International Relations Minister summoned U.S. Ambassador Brent Bozell III over critical comments, prompting EFF calls for his expulsion, but the government refrained from declaring him persona non grata, prioritizing dialogue. President Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career U.S. ambassadors from African and other posts sparked concerns over destabilization but elicited no reciprocal foreign expulsions. Absent fresh escalations like sanctions disputes or espionage allegations, traders view the high threshold for ambassador expulsions—typically reserved for severe breakdowns—as a barrier through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Hacim
$13,031Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus favors "No" at 73% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such diplomatic ruptures amid stable bilateral relations despite ongoing tensions. In March 2026, South Africa's International Relations Minister summoned U.S. Ambassador Brent Bozell III over critical comments, prompting EFF calls for his expulsion, but the government refrained from declaring him persona non grata, prioritizing dialogue. President Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career U.S. ambassadors from African and other posts sparked concerns over destabilization but elicited no reciprocal foreign expulsions. Absent fresh escalations like sanctions disputes or espionage allegations, traders view the high threshold for ambassador expulsions—typically reserved for severe breakdowns—as a barrier through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$13,031Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 73% implied probability for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting the rarity of such diplomatic ruptures amid stable bilateral relations despite ongoing tensions. In March 2026, South Africa's International Relations Minister summoned U.S. Ambassador Brent Bozell III over critical comments, prompting EFF calls for his expulsion, but the government refrained from declaring him persona non grata, prioritizing dialogue. President Trump's December 2025 recall of nearly 30 career U.S. ambassadors from African and other posts sparked concerns over destabilization but elicited no reciprocal foreign expulsions. Absent fresh escalations like sanctions disputes or espionage allegations, traders view the high threshold for ambassador expulsions—typically reserved for severe breakdowns—as a barrier through year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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