Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its resilience amid US-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 and January protests that killed over 500. Security forces, including the IRGC, have maintained loyalty through lethal crackdowns, internet shutdowns, and recent executions like that of protester Melika Azizi on Nowruz, quelling unrest without mass uprisings despite economic collapse from Hormuz disruptions and Trump administration sanctions announced April 15. US aircraft losses reported April 4 further dimmed regime change hopes, as no verified defections or leadership vacuums—amid unconfirmed Khamenei reports—signal imminent overthrow, with historical patterns favoring entrenched clerical control over rapid falls.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendiİran rejimi 30 Haziran'a kadar düşecek mi?
İran rejimi 30 Haziran'a kadar düşecek mi?
Evet
$31,335,183 Hac.
$31,335,183 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Evet
$31,335,183 Hac.
$31,335,183 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its resilience amid US-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 and January protests that killed over 500. Security forces, including the IRGC, have maintained loyalty through lethal crackdowns, internet shutdowns, and recent executions like that of protester Melika Azizi on Nowruz, quelling unrest without mass uprisings despite economic collapse from Hormuz disruptions and Trump administration sanctions announced April 15. US aircraft losses reported April 4 further dimmed regime change hopes, as no verified defections or leadership vacuums—amid unconfirmed Khamenei reports—signal imminent overthrow, with historical patterns favoring entrenched clerical control over rapid falls.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Hacim
$31,335,183Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its resilience amid US-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 and January protests that killed over 500. Security forces, including the IRGC, have maintained loyalty through lethal crackdowns, internet shutdowns, and recent executions like that of protester Melika Azizi on Nowruz, quelling unrest without mass uprisings despite economic collapse from Hormuz disruptions and Trump administration sanctions announced April 15. US aircraft losses reported April 4 further dimmed regime change hopes, as no verified defections or leadership vacuums—amid unconfirmed Khamenei reports—signal imminent overthrow, with historical patterns favoring entrenched clerical control over rapid falls.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$31,335,190Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its resilience amid US-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 and January protests that killed over 500. Security forces, including the IRGC, have maintained loyalty through lethal crackdowns, internet shutdowns, and recent executions like that of protester Melika Azizi on Nowruz, quelling unrest without mass uprisings despite economic collapse from Hormuz disruptions and Trump administration sanctions announced April 15. US aircraft losses reported April 4 further dimmed regime change hopes, as no verified defections or leadership vacuums—amid unconfirmed Khamenei reports—signal imminent overthrow, with historical patterns favoring entrenched clerical control over rapid falls.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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