Amid fragile ceasefires following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran since late February 2026, trader sentiment on an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal remains skeptical due to entrenched hostilities, Iran's nuclear program, and proxy conflicts via Hezbollah. Over the past week, President Trump announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce enabling direct talks, while signaling optimism for U.S.-Iran negotiations on enriched uranium and port blockades after marathon sessions in Pakistan ended without agreement on April 12. Netanyahu affirmed aligned U.S.-Israel goals against Iran but stressed readiness for escalation, underscoring unresolved missile threats and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Upcoming U.S.-Iran weekend talks and the ceasefire's expiration could shift dynamics, though historical enmity and institutional barriers make normalization improbable by year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
YENİ
31 May 2026
April 22
6%
April 30
11%
30 Haziran
33%
$2,645 Hac.
April 22
$2,318 Hac.
6%
April 30
$198 Hac.
11%
30 Haziran
$425 Hac.
33%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid fragile ceasefires following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran since late February 2026, trader sentiment on an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal remains skeptical due to entrenched hostilities, Iran's nuclear program, and proxy conflicts via Hezbollah. Over the past week, President Trump announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce enabling direct talks, while signaling optimism for U.S.-Iran negotiations on enriched uranium and port blockades after marathon sessions in Pakistan ended without agreement on April 12. Netanyahu affirmed aligned U.S.-Israel goals against Iran but stressed readiness for escalation, underscoring unresolved missile threats and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Upcoming U.S.-Iran weekend talks and the ceasefire's expiration could shift dynamics, though historical enmity and institutional barriers make normalization improbable by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Hacim
$2,645Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid fragile ceasefires following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran since late February 2026, trader sentiment on an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal remains skeptical due to entrenched hostilities, Iran's nuclear program, and proxy conflicts via Hezbollah. Over the past week, President Trump announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce enabling direct talks, while signaling optimism for U.S.-Iran negotiations on enriched uranium and port blockades after marathon sessions in Pakistan ended without agreement on April 12. Netanyahu affirmed aligned U.S.-Israel goals against Iran but stressed readiness for escalation, underscoring unresolved missile threats and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Upcoming U.S.-Iran weekend talks and the ceasefire's expiration could shift dynamics, though historical enmity and institutional barriers make normalization improbable by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$2,645Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid fragile ceasefires following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran since late February 2026, trader sentiment on an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal remains skeptical due to entrenched hostilities, Iran's nuclear program, and proxy conflicts via Hezbollah. Over the past week, President Trump announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce enabling direct talks, while signaling optimism for U.S.-Iran negotiations on enriched uranium and port blockades after marathon sessions in Pakistan ended without agreement on April 12. Netanyahu affirmed aligned U.S.-Israel goals against Iran but stressed readiness for escalation, underscoring unresolved missile threats and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Upcoming U.S.-Iran weekend talks and the ceasefire's expiration could shift dynamics, though historical enmity and institutional barriers make normalization improbable by year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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