Trader consensus favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at 70.5% implied probability, reflecting stalled US-brokered peace talks paused since mid-March amid escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran, which have diverted diplomatic focus. A brief Orthodox Easter truce around April 11 collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations, while frontline fighting persists with Russian offensives slowing in Donbas and Sumy—gains halved from early 2025 per Institute for the Study of War assessments—and Ukrainian deep strikes hitting over 70 Russian industrial targets in March. Zelenskyy's April 6 conditional ceasefire proposal demanding Russian troop withdrawals remains unmet, as Moscow insists on Ukraine's demilitarization, underscoring deep territorial and security divides with no near-term catalysts for de-escalation before year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$14,068,338 Hac.
$14,068,338 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
%4 Kazan
Evet
$14,068,338 Hac.
$14,068,338 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
%4 Kazan
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at 70.5% implied probability, reflecting stalled US-brokered peace talks paused since mid-March amid escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran, which have diverted diplomatic focus. A brief Orthodox Easter truce around April 11 collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations, while frontline fighting persists with Russian offensives slowing in Donbas and Sumy—gains halved from early 2025 per Institute for the Study of War assessments—and Ukrainian deep strikes hitting over 70 Russian industrial targets in March. Zelenskyy's April 6 conditional ceasefire proposal demanding Russian troop withdrawals remains unmet, as Moscow insists on Ukraine's demilitarization, underscoring deep territorial and security divides with no near-term catalysts for de-escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Hacim
$14,068,338Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETÇözümleyici
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at 70.5% implied probability, reflecting stalled US-brokered peace talks paused since mid-March amid escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran, which have diverted diplomatic focus. A brief Orthodox Easter truce around April 11 collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations, while frontline fighting persists with Russian offensives slowing in Donbas and Sumy—gains halved from early 2025 per Institute for the Study of War assessments—and Ukrainian deep strikes hitting over 70 Russian industrial targets in March. Zelenskyy's April 6 conditional ceasefire proposal demanding Russian troop withdrawals remains unmet, as Moscow insists on Ukraine's demilitarization, underscoring deep territorial and security divides with no near-term catalysts for de-escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Hacim
$14,068,338Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETÇözümleyici
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at 70.5% implied probability, reflecting stalled US-brokered peace talks paused since mid-March amid escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran, which have diverted diplomatic focus. A brief Orthodox Easter truce around April 11 collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations, while frontline fighting persists with Russian offensives slowing in Donbas and Sumy—gains halved from early 2025 per Institute for the Study of War assessments—and Ukrainian deep strikes hitting over 70 Russian industrial targets in March. Zelenskyy's April 6 conditional ceasefire proposal demanding Russian troop withdrawals remains unmet, as Moscow insists on Ukraine's demilitarization, underscoring deep territorial and security divides with no near-term catalysts for de-escalation before year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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