Trader consensus prices a 98.5% probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled peace talks and persistent military actions, as evidenced by the limited 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce on April 11-12 that both sides accused each other of violating over 2,000 times. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments confirm ongoing Russian offensives in northern Sumy Oblast and Hulyaipole direction with no confirmed advances but steady pressure, alongside Ukraine's drone gains, signaling no de-escalation momentum. Fundamental disagreements—Russia's insistence on territorial recognition versus Ukraine's demand for full withdrawal—remain unresolved amid absent diplomatic breakthroughs. While sudden U.S.-mediated talks or battlefield reversals could shift odds, the tight two-week timeline poses significant barriers.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi30 Nisan 2026 'ya kadar Rusya x Ukrayna ateşkesi?
30 Nisan 2026 'ya kadar Rusya x Ukrayna ateşkesi?
Evet
$6,918,952 Hac.
$6,918,952 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Evet
$6,918,952 Hac.
$6,918,952 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a 98.5% probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled peace talks and persistent military actions, as evidenced by the limited 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce on April 11-12 that both sides accused each other of violating over 2,000 times. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments confirm ongoing Russian offensives in northern Sumy Oblast and Hulyaipole direction with no confirmed advances but steady pressure, alongside Ukraine's drone gains, signaling no de-escalation momentum. Fundamental disagreements—Russia's insistence on territorial recognition versus Ukraine's demand for full withdrawal—remain unresolved amid absent diplomatic breakthroughs. While sudden U.S.-mediated talks or battlefield reversals could shift odds, the tight two-week timeline poses significant barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Hacim
$6,918,952Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a 98.5% probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled peace talks and persistent military actions, as evidenced by the limited 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce on April 11-12 that both sides accused each other of violating over 2,000 times. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments confirm ongoing Russian offensives in northern Sumy Oblast and Hulyaipole direction with no confirmed advances but steady pressure, alongside Ukraine's drone gains, signaling no de-escalation momentum. Fundamental disagreements—Russia's insistence on territorial recognition versus Ukraine's demand for full withdrawal—remain unresolved amid absent diplomatic breakthroughs. While sudden U.S.-mediated talks or battlefield reversals could shift odds, the tight two-week timeline poses significant barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Hacim
$6,918,952Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 98.5% probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled peace talks and persistent military actions, as evidenced by the limited 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce on April 11-12 that both sides accused each other of violating over 2,000 times. Recent Institute for the Study of War assessments confirm ongoing Russian offensives in northern Sumy Oblast and Hulyaipole direction with no confirmed advances but steady pressure, alongside Ukraine's drone gains, signaling no de-escalation momentum. Fundamental disagreements—Russia's insistence on territorial recognition versus Ukraine's demand for full withdrawal—remain unresolved amid absent diplomatic breakthroughs. While sudden U.S.-mediated talks or battlefield reversals could shift odds, the tight two-week timeline poses significant barriers.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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