Ongoing Russian drone strikes and ground offensives in eastern Ukraine, including recent attacks on Sumy and Odesa reported as late as April 14, underscore the absence of de-escalation following the short-lived Orthodox Easter truce on April 12-13, which both sides accused each other of violating. Diplomatic efforts, such as Zelenskyy's Easter ceasefire proposal relayed via US mediators, have stalled without Russian reciprocation, while earlier Geneva talks in February yielded no breakthroughs amid competing Middle East tensions. ISW assessments confirm a battlefield stalemate with no territorial gains, reinforcing trader consensus at 93.5% "No" probability for a ceasefire by May 31, as entrenched positions and intensified military actions leave scant room for near-term peace talks absent major concessions or external pressure.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi31 Mayıs 2026 'ya kadar Rusya x Ukrayna ateşkesi?
31 Mayıs 2026 'ya kadar Rusya x Ukrayna ateşkesi?
Evet
$440,993 Hac.
$440,993 Hac.
31 May 2026
Evet
$440,993 Hac.
$440,993 Hac.
31 May 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian drone strikes and ground offensives in eastern Ukraine, including recent attacks on Sumy and Odesa reported as late as April 14, underscore the absence of de-escalation following the short-lived Orthodox Easter truce on April 12-13, which both sides accused each other of violating. Diplomatic efforts, such as Zelenskyy's Easter ceasefire proposal relayed via US mediators, have stalled without Russian reciprocation, while earlier Geneva talks in February yielded no breakthroughs amid competing Middle East tensions. ISW assessments confirm a battlefield stalemate with no territorial gains, reinforcing trader consensus at 93.5% "No" probability for a ceasefire by May 31, as entrenched positions and intensified military actions leave scant room for near-term peace talks absent major concessions or external pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Hacim
$440,993Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian drone strikes and ground offensives in eastern Ukraine, including recent attacks on Sumy and Odesa reported as late as April 14, underscore the absence of de-escalation following the short-lived Orthodox Easter truce on April 12-13, which both sides accused each other of violating. Diplomatic efforts, such as Zelenskyy's Easter ceasefire proposal relayed via US mediators, have stalled without Russian reciprocation, while earlier Geneva talks in February yielded no breakthroughs amid competing Middle East tensions. ISW assessments confirm a battlefield stalemate with no territorial gains, reinforcing trader consensus at 93.5% "No" probability for a ceasefire by May 31, as entrenched positions and intensified military actions leave scant room for near-term peace talks absent major concessions or external pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Hacim
$440,993Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Russian drone strikes and ground offensives in eastern Ukraine, including recent attacks on Sumy and Odesa reported as late as April 14, underscore the absence of de-escalation following the short-lived Orthodox Easter truce on April 12-13, which both sides accused each other of violating. Diplomatic efforts, such as Zelenskyy's Easter ceasefire proposal relayed via US mediators, have stalled without Russian reciprocation, while earlier Geneva talks in February yielded no breakthroughs amid competing Middle East tensions. ISW assessments confirm a battlefield stalemate with no territorial gains, reinforcing trader consensus at 93.5% "No" probability for a ceasefire by May 31, as entrenched positions and intensified military actions leave scant room for near-term peace talks absent major concessions or external pressure.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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