Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just 12% probability to a Russian nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting the absence of verifiable preparations for an intentional non-combat nuclear detonation since Russia's last such event in 1990. The New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, eliminated the final U.S.-Russia limit on deployed strategic warheads, spurring rhetoric but no shift toward explosive testing, as Moscow upholds a de facto moratorium despite revoking CTBT ratification in 2023. Recent strategic missile drills, including Yars ICBM maneuvers in Siberia on April 2, 2026, and planned solid-fuel ICBM flight tests later this year, emphasize delivery systems without chain-reaction detonations. Escalation risks from the Ukraine conflict persist, but international norms and simulation capabilities maintain low odds, with June 30, 2026, at only 2%.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$1,342,393 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
30 Haziran 2026
2%
30 Eylül 2026
9%
31 Aralık 2026
12%
$1,342,393 Hac.
30 Haziran 2026
$4,269 Hac.
2%
30 Eylül 2026
$1,400 Hac.
9%
31 Aralık 2026
$12,151 Hac.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just 12% probability to a Russian nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting the absence of verifiable preparations for an intentional non-combat nuclear detonation since Russia's last such event in 1990. The New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, eliminated the final U.S.-Russia limit on deployed strategic warheads, spurring rhetoric but no shift toward explosive testing, as Moscow upholds a de facto moratorium despite revoking CTBT ratification in 2023. Recent strategic missile drills, including Yars ICBM maneuvers in Siberia on April 2, 2026, and planned solid-fuel ICBM flight tests later this year, emphasize delivery systems without chain-reaction detonations. Escalation risks from the Ukraine conflict persist, but international norms and simulation capabilities maintain low odds, with June 30, 2026, at only 2%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Hacim
$1,342,393Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just 12% probability to a Russian nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting the absence of verifiable preparations for an intentional non-combat nuclear detonation since Russia's last such event in 1990. The New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, eliminated the final U.S.-Russia limit on deployed strategic warheads, spurring rhetoric but no shift toward explosive testing, as Moscow upholds a de facto moratorium despite revoking CTBT ratification in 2023. Recent strategic missile drills, including Yars ICBM maneuvers in Siberia on April 2, 2026, and planned solid-fuel ICBM flight tests later this year, emphasize delivery systems without chain-reaction detonations. Escalation risks from the Ukraine conflict persist, but international norms and simulation capabilities maintain low odds, with June 30, 2026, at only 2%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$1,342,393Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just 12% probability to a Russian nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting the absence of verifiable preparations for an intentional non-combat nuclear detonation since Russia's last such event in 1990. The New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, eliminated the final U.S.-Russia limit on deployed strategic warheads, spurring rhetoric but no shift toward explosive testing, as Moscow upholds a de facto moratorium despite revoking CTBT ratification in 2023. Recent strategic missile drills, including Yars ICBM maneuvers in Siberia on April 2, 2026, and planned solid-fuel ICBM flight tests later this year, emphasize delivery systems without chain-reaction detonations. Escalation risks from the Ukraine conflict persist, but international norms and simulation capabilities maintain low odds, with June 30, 2026, at only 2%.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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