The Trump administration's October 2025 directive to evaluate resuming underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site—citing U.S. intelligence on alleged low-yield tests by Russia and China—remains the pivotal catalyst, but no detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. A senior State Department official testified in late March 2026 that assessments continue without ruling out resumption, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the site April 14 to voice opposition over environmental risks and proliferation dangers. Trader consensus implies modest odds (1% by June 30, 9% by September 30, 14% by December 31), reflecting preparation timelines of 24-36 months per experts, potential congressional funding hurdles, and Russian vows to match any U.S. test, with DOE budget deliberations ahead.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiABD nükleer testi...?
ABD nükleer testi...?
$638,252 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
30 Haziran 2026
1%
30 Eylül 2026
8%
31 Aralık 2026
14%
$638,252 Hac.
30 Haziran 2026
$23,084 Hac.
1%
30 Eylül 2026
$2,096 Hac.
8%
31 Aralık 2026
$2,853 Hac.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's October 2025 directive to evaluate resuming underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site—citing U.S. intelligence on alleged low-yield tests by Russia and China—remains the pivotal catalyst, but no detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. A senior State Department official testified in late March 2026 that assessments continue without ruling out resumption, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the site April 14 to voice opposition over environmental risks and proliferation dangers. Trader consensus implies modest odds (1% by June 30, 9% by September 30, 14% by December 31), reflecting preparation timelines of 24-36 months per experts, potential congressional funding hurdles, and Russian vows to match any U.S. test, with DOE budget deliberations ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Hacim
$638,252Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's October 2025 directive to evaluate resuming underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site—citing U.S. intelligence on alleged low-yield tests by Russia and China—remains the pivotal catalyst, but no detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. A senior State Department official testified in late March 2026 that assessments continue without ruling out resumption, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the site April 14 to voice opposition over environmental risks and proliferation dangers. Trader consensus implies modest odds (1% by June 30, 9% by September 30, 14% by December 31), reflecting preparation timelines of 24-36 months per experts, potential congressional funding hurdles, and Russian vows to match any U.S. test, with DOE budget deliberations ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$638,252Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's October 2025 directive to evaluate resuming underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site—citing U.S. intelligence on alleged low-yield tests by Russia and China—remains the pivotal catalyst, but no detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. A senior State Department official testified in late March 2026 that assessments continue without ruling out resumption, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the site April 14 to voice opposition over environmental risks and proliferation dangers. Trader consensus implies modest odds (1% by June 30, 9% by September 30, 14% by December 31), reflecting preparation timelines of 24-36 months per experts, potential congressional funding hurdles, and Russian vows to match any U.S. test, with DOE budget deliberations ahead.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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