President Zelenskyy's recent rejection of any "NATO light" version underscores Ukraine's firm insistence on full alliance membership without preconditions, driving trader consensus toward an 80.5% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo NATO accession before 2027. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed on April 9 no agreements exist on near-term membership amid lacking consensus among allies, while ongoing US-mediated peace talks with Russia emphasize alternative NATO-like security guarantees rather than a formal Ukrainian pledge of neutrality or delay. Earlier December 2025 signals of flexibility have dissipated, with recent Ukraine Defence Contact Group meetings focusing on aid over accession timelines, highlighting persistent diplomatic hurdles.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$82,098 Hac.
$82,098 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$82,098 Hac.
$82,098 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.President Zelenskyy's recent rejection of any "NATO light" version underscores Ukraine's firm insistence on full alliance membership without preconditions, driving trader consensus toward an 80.5% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo NATO accession before 2027. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed on April 9 no agreements exist on near-term membership amid lacking consensus among allies, while ongoing US-mediated peace talks with Russia emphasize alternative NATO-like security guarantees rather than a formal Ukrainian pledge of neutrality or delay. Earlier December 2025 signals of flexibility have dissipated, with recent Ukraine Defence Contact Group meetings focusing on aid over accession timelines, highlighting persistent diplomatic hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Hacim
$82,098Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.President Zelenskyy's recent rejection of any "NATO light" version underscores Ukraine's firm insistence on full alliance membership without preconditions, driving trader consensus toward an 80.5% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo NATO accession before 2027. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed on April 9 no agreements exist on near-term membership amid lacking consensus among allies, while ongoing US-mediated peace talks with Russia emphasize alternative NATO-like security guarantees rather than a formal Ukrainian pledge of neutrality or delay. Earlier December 2025 signals of flexibility have dissipated, with recent Ukraine Defence Contact Group meetings focusing on aid over accession timelines, highlighting persistent diplomatic hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Hacim
$82,098Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Zelenskyy's recent rejection of any "NATO light" version underscores Ukraine's firm insistence on full alliance membership without preconditions, driving trader consensus toward an 80.5% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo NATO accession before 2027. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed on April 9 no agreements exist on near-term membership amid lacking consensus among allies, while ongoing US-mediated peace talks with Russia emphasize alternative NATO-like security guarantees rather than a formal Ukrainian pledge of neutrality or delay. Earlier December 2025 signals of flexibility have dissipated, with recent Ukraine Defence Contact Group meetings focusing on aid over accession timelines, highlighting persistent diplomatic hurdles.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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