Israel and Lebanon agreed to a fragile 10-day ceasefire effective April 16, excluding Hezbollah, following historic direct talks in Washington hosted by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, amid ongoing cross-border strikes by Hezbollah rockets and Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu has instructed negotiations aimed at Hezbollah disarmament and a lasting border security arrangement up to the Litani River, but Hezbollah demands full Israeli withdrawal and rejects terms granting Israel freedom of movement. This short-term truce builds on a broader U.S.-Iran framework but faces immediate tests, with trader consensus reflecting low prospects for a permanent peace deal soon due to entrenched demands, escalation risks, and no-confidence in Hezbollah compliance. Upcoming extensions or breakdowns in the ceasefire, plus coalition pressures in Lebanon, will drive market shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
YENİ
31 May 2026
April 26
5%
May 31
13%
$9,344 Hac.
April 26
$7,366 Hac.
5%
May 31
$2,054 Hac.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel and Lebanon agreed to a fragile 10-day ceasefire effective April 16, excluding Hezbollah, following historic direct talks in Washington hosted by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, amid ongoing cross-border strikes by Hezbollah rockets and Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu has instructed negotiations aimed at Hezbollah disarmament and a lasting border security arrangement up to the Litani River, but Hezbollah demands full Israeli withdrawal and rejects terms granting Israel freedom of movement. This short-term truce builds on a broader U.S.-Iran framework but faces immediate tests, with trader consensus reflecting low prospects for a permanent peace deal soon due to entrenched demands, escalation risks, and no-confidence in Hezbollah compliance. Upcoming extensions or breakdowns in the ceasefire, plus coalition pressures in Lebanon, will drive market shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Hacim
$9,344Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel and Lebanon agreed to a fragile 10-day ceasefire effective April 16, excluding Hezbollah, following historic direct talks in Washington hosted by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, amid ongoing cross-border strikes by Hezbollah rockets and Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu has instructed negotiations aimed at Hezbollah disarmament and a lasting border security arrangement up to the Litani River, but Hezbollah demands full Israeli withdrawal and rejects terms granting Israel freedom of movement. This short-term truce builds on a broader U.S.-Iran framework but faces immediate tests, with trader consensus reflecting low prospects for a permanent peace deal soon due to entrenched demands, escalation risks, and no-confidence in Hezbollah compliance. Upcoming extensions or breakdowns in the ceasefire, plus coalition pressures in Lebanon, will drive market shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$9,344Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel and Lebanon agreed to a fragile 10-day ceasefire effective April 16, excluding Hezbollah, following historic direct talks in Washington hosted by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, amid ongoing cross-border strikes by Hezbollah rockets and Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu has instructed negotiations aimed at Hezbollah disarmament and a lasting border security arrangement up to the Litani River, but Hezbollah demands full Israeli withdrawal and rejects terms granting Israel freedom of movement. This short-term truce builds on a broader U.S.-Iran framework but faces immediate tests, with trader consensus reflecting low prospects for a permanent peace deal soon due to entrenched demands, escalation risks, and no-confidence in Hezbollah compliance. Upcoming extensions or breakdowns in the ceasefire, plus coalition pressures in Lebanon, will drive market shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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