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2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?

Market icon

2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?

Ara 31

Ara 31

Orbán - Macaristan Başbakanı 93%

Takaichi - Japonya Başbakanı 1.6%

Díaz-Canel - Küba Devlet Başkanı 1.4%

Trump - ABD Başkanı 1.1%

Polymarket

$4,498,490 Hac.

Orbán - Macaristan Başbakanı 93%

Takaichi - Japonya Başbakanı 1.6%

Díaz-Canel - Küba Devlet Başkanı 1.4%

Trump - ABD Başkanı 1.1%

Polymarket

$4,498,490 Hac.

Orbán - Macaristan Başbakanı

$74,987 Hac.

93%

Takaichi - Japonya Başbakanı

$385,828 Hac.

2%

Díaz-Canel - Küba Devlet Başkanı

$58,816 Hac.

1%

Trump - ABD Başkanı

$264,102 Hac.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukrayna Devlet Başkanı

$65,081 Hac.

1%

Putin - Rusya Devlet Başkanı

$399,010 Hac.

1%

Petro - Kolombiya Devlet Başkanı

$82,481 Hac.

1%

Netanyahu - İsrail Başbakanı

$1,058,939 Hac.

<1%

Sánchez - İspanya Başbakanı

$50,294 Hac.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Geçici Devlet Başkanı

$67,846 Hac.

<1%

2027'den önce yok

$66,657 Hac.

<1%

Macron - Fransa Cumhurbaşkanı

$116,139 Hac.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye Cumhurbaşkanı

$111,557 Hac.

<1%

Kim - Kuzey Kore'nin Yüce Lideri

$67,334 Hac.

<1%

Newsom - Kaliforniya Valisi

$135,990 Hac.

<1%

Milei - Arjantin Cumhurbaşkanı

$70,943 Hac.

<1%

Starmer - Birleşik Krallık Başbakanı

$615,054 Hac.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brezilya Devlet Başkanı

$113,441 Hac.

<1%

Lecornu - Fransa Başbakanı

$127,829 Hac.

<1%

Abbas - Filistin Devlet Başkanı

$156,232 Hac.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Meksika Başkanı

$91,393 Hac.

<1%

el-Şaraa - Suriye Devlet Başkanı

$90,283 Hac.

<1%

Xi - ÇKP Genel Sekreteri

$71,458 Hac.

<1%

Albanese - Avustralya Başbakanı

$86,447 Hac.

<1%

Merz - Almanya Şansölyesi

$70,351 Hac.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12 delivered a landslide victory for challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party, prompting Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to concede defeat after 16 years in power, driving his 92.5% implied probability as the next leader out before 2027. Voter frustration over economic woes, corruption scandals, and EU tensions fueled Tisza's supermajority win with record turnout, positioning Magyar for a swift transition and Orbán's imminent exit. Trader consensus reflects this confirmed shift, with other leaders' low odds unchanged absent recent catalysts. Realistic challenges include potential recounts, coalition hurdles, or legal disputes delaying handover, though Orbán's early concession minimizes such risks.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$4,498,490
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12 delivered a landslide victory for challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party, prompting Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to concede defeat after 16 years in power, driving his 92.5% implied probability as the next leader out before 2027. Voter frustration over economic woes, corruption scandals, and EU tensions fueled Tisza's supermajority win with record turnout, positioning Magyar for a swift transition and Orbán's imminent exit. Trader consensus reflects this confirmed shift, with other leaders' low odds unchanged absent recent catalysts. Realistic challenges include potential recounts, coalition hurdles, or legal disputes delaying handover, though Orbán's early concession minimizes such risks.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$4,498,490
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 25 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 93% ile "Orbán - Macaristan Başbakanı", ardından 2% ile "Takaichi - Japonya Başbakanı" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 93¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 93% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?" toplam $4.5 million işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Mar 3, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 25 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?" için mevcut favori 93% ile "Orbán - Macaristan Başbakanı"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 93% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 2% ile "Takaichi - Japonya Başbakanı"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"2027 'den önce bir sonraki liderin gücü mü tükendi?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.