Trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing war with Israel and U.S. strikes that have inflicted generational military defeats, shattered the economy, and weakened proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, prompted a managed transition without chaos, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has quelled protests and organized over 850 pro-regime demonstrations since late March. Israeli security assessments indicate no collapse during active conflict, with any potential internal factional breakdown or popular uprising likely months away post-ceasefire, underscoring the regime's coercion apparatus and ideological cohesion as key stabilizers.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$14,993,261 Hac.
$14,993,261 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$14,993,261 Hac.
$14,993,261 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing war with Israel and U.S. strikes that have inflicted generational military defeats, shattered the economy, and weakened proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, prompted a managed transition without chaos, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has quelled protests and organized over 850 pro-regime demonstrations since late March. Israeli security assessments indicate no collapse during active conflict, with any potential internal factional breakdown or popular uprising likely months away post-ceasefire, underscoring the regime's coercion apparatus and ideological cohesion as key stabilizers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Hacim
$14,993,261Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing war with Israel and U.S. strikes that have inflicted generational military defeats, shattered the economy, and weakened proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, prompted a managed transition without chaos, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has quelled protests and organized over 850 pro-regime demonstrations since late March. Israeli security assessments indicate no collapse during active conflict, with any potential internal factional breakdown or popular uprising likely months away post-ceasefire, underscoring the regime's coercion apparatus and ideological cohesion as key stabilizers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$14,993,261Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 81.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing war with Israel and U.S. strikes that have inflicted generational military defeats, shattered the economy, and weakened proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, prompted a managed transition without chaos, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has quelled protests and organized over 850 pro-regime demonstrations since late March. Israeli security assessments indicate no collapse during active conflict, with any potential internal factional breakdown or popular uprising likely months away post-ceasefire, underscoring the regime's coercion apparatus and ideological cohesion as key stabilizers.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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