Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 53.5%, reflecting a sharp lull in verified strikes since mid-March 2026 amid the ongoing regional war. Early March saw Iranian forces hit at least 16–22 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting self-imposed shipping halts, U.S. turnarounds of transiting ships, and IRGC-imposed tolls that slashed daily traffic from 138 to a trickle. Heightened U.S. naval patrols and coalition degradation of Iranian missile stockpiles have limited successes, while Houthi proxies issued Red Sea threats and a failed April 12 boarding attempt near Bab el-Mandeb. Stalled ceasefire talks and potential Hormuz blockades could spur 2–3 more hits by April 30, but barriers like rerouting and defenses cap escalation.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendiİran 30 Nisan'a kadar kaç gemiyi başarıyla hedef alacak?
İran 30 Nisan'a kadar kaç gemiyi başarıyla hedef alacak?
2–3 55%
4–5 19%
8–9 8%
6–7 7%
$60,967 Hac.
$60,967 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
2–3
55%
4–5
19%
6–7
7%
8–9
8%
10+
4%
2–3 55%
4–5 19%
8–9 8%
6–7 7%
$60,967 Hac.
$60,967 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
2–3
$8,552 Hac.
55%
4–5
$14,175 Hac.
19%
6–7
$3,596 Hac.
7%
8–9
$6,654 Hac.
8%
10+
$3,259 Hac.
4%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 53.5%, reflecting a sharp lull in verified strikes since mid-March 2026 amid the ongoing regional war. Early March saw Iranian forces hit at least 16–22 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting self-imposed shipping halts, U.S. turnarounds of transiting ships, and IRGC-imposed tolls that slashed daily traffic from 138 to a trickle. Heightened U.S. naval patrols and coalition degradation of Iranian missile stockpiles have limited successes, while Houthi proxies issued Red Sea threats and a failed April 12 boarding attempt near Bab el-Mandeb. Stalled ceasefire talks and potential Hormuz blockades could spur 2–3 more hits by April 30, but barriers like rerouting and defenses cap escalation.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Hacim
$60,967Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 53.5%, reflecting a sharp lull in verified strikes since mid-March 2026 amid the ongoing regional war. Early March saw Iranian forces hit at least 16–22 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting self-imposed shipping halts, U.S. turnarounds of transiting ships, and IRGC-imposed tolls that slashed daily traffic from 138 to a trickle. Heightened U.S. naval patrols and coalition degradation of Iranian missile stockpiles have limited successes, while Houthi proxies issued Red Sea threats and a failed April 12 boarding attempt near Bab el-Mandeb. Stalled ceasefire talks and potential Hormuz blockades could spur 2–3 more hits by April 30, but barriers like rerouting and defenses cap escalation.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$60,967Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 53.5%, reflecting a sharp lull in verified strikes since mid-March 2026 amid the ongoing regional war. Early March saw Iranian forces hit at least 16–22 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, prompting self-imposed shipping halts, U.S. turnarounds of transiting ships, and IRGC-imposed tolls that slashed daily traffic from 138 to a trickle. Heightened U.S. naval patrols and coalition degradation of Iranian missile stockpiles have limited successes, while Houthi proxies issued Red Sea threats and a failed April 12 boarding attempt near Bab el-Mandeb. Stalled ceasefire talks and potential Hormuz blockades could spur 2–3 more hits by April 30, but barriers like rerouting and defenses cap escalation.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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