The first direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, ended without agreement on April 12 after 21 hours, as US demands for zero uranium enrichment, missile caps, nuclear site dismantlement, and curbs on proxy funding clashed with Iran's calls for full sanctions relief, reparations, and Strait of Hormuz transit rights. A two-week ceasefire from April 7 holds tenuously, expiring around April 21, while the US began blockading Iranian ports on April 14 to heighten pressure. Diplomats now pursue a second round of negotiations within days, with President Trump expressing optimism, though entrenched strategic gaps and historical US-Iran negotiation failures leave permanent deal prospects uncertain amid escalation risks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiABD x İran kalıcı barış anlaşması...?
ABD x İran kalıcı barış anlaşması...?
$7,743,856 Hac.
22 Nis 2026
22 Nisan
22%
30 Nisan
40%
31 Mayıs
60%
30 Haziran
73%
$7,743,856 Hac.
22 Nisan
$5,129,202 Hac.
22%
30 Nisan
$1,429,869 Hac.
40%
31 Mayıs
$955,251 Hac.
60%
30 Haziran
$230,319 Hac.
73%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The first direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, ended without agreement on April 12 after 21 hours, as US demands for zero uranium enrichment, missile caps, nuclear site dismantlement, and curbs on proxy funding clashed with Iran's calls for full sanctions relief, reparations, and Strait of Hormuz transit rights. A two-week ceasefire from April 7 holds tenuously, expiring around April 21, while the US began blockading Iranian ports on April 14 to heighten pressure. Diplomats now pursue a second round of negotiations within days, with President Trump expressing optimism, though entrenched strategic gaps and historical US-Iran negotiation failures leave permanent deal prospects uncertain amid escalation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Hacim
$7,743,856Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The first direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, ended without agreement on April 12 after 21 hours, as US demands for zero uranium enrichment, missile caps, nuclear site dismantlement, and curbs on proxy funding clashed with Iran's calls for full sanctions relief, reparations, and Strait of Hormuz transit rights. A two-week ceasefire from April 7 holds tenuously, expiring around April 21, while the US began blockading Iranian ports on April 14 to heighten pressure. Diplomats now pursue a second round of negotiations within days, with President Trump expressing optimism, though entrenched strategic gaps and historical US-Iran negotiation failures leave permanent deal prospects uncertain amid escalation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$7,743,856Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, ended without agreement on April 12 after 21 hours, as US demands for zero uranium enrichment, missile caps, nuclear site dismantlement, and curbs on proxy funding clashed with Iran's calls for full sanctions relief, reparations, and Strait of Hormuz transit rights. A two-week ceasefire from April 7 holds tenuously, expiring around April 21, while the US began blockading Iranian ports on April 14 to heighten pressure. Diplomats now pursue a second round of negotiations within days, with President Trump expressing optimism, though entrenched strategic gaps and historical US-Iran negotiation failures leave permanent deal prospects uncertain amid escalation risks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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