Trader consensus prices a low 12% chance of a qualifying U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by April 30, rising to 27% by June 30, reflecting the Trump administration's aggressive push via the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (ACCC) formed March 7 but no confirmed direct U.S. personnel ground participation or independent kinetic strikes to date. Recent joint U.S.-Ecuador actions under Operation Total Extermination in early March targeted cartel infrastructure near the Colombia border through aerial bombardment, yet relied on support roles rather than boots-on-the-ground involvement. Ongoing U.S. maritime strikes in the eastern Pacific against trafficking vessels do not qualify as foreign soil operations, while an April 10 FAA-Pentagon deal enables anti-drone lasers near Mexico. Escalation risks grow with ACCC expansion, including new Status of Forces Agreements and potential wider campaigns amid Mexico's sovereignty concerns.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$90,581 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
30 Nisan
13%
30 Haziran
27%
$90,581 Hac.
30 Nisan
$37,769 Hac.
13%
30 Haziran
$10,719 Hac.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a low 12% chance of a qualifying U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by April 30, rising to 27% by June 30, reflecting the Trump administration's aggressive push via the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (ACCC) formed March 7 but no confirmed direct U.S. personnel ground participation or independent kinetic strikes to date. Recent joint U.S.-Ecuador actions under Operation Total Extermination in early March targeted cartel infrastructure near the Colombia border through aerial bombardment, yet relied on support roles rather than boots-on-the-ground involvement. Ongoing U.S. maritime strikes in the eastern Pacific against trafficking vessels do not qualify as foreign soil operations, while an April 10 FAA-Pentagon deal enables anti-drone lasers near Mexico. Escalation risks grow with ACCC expansion, including new Status of Forces Agreements and potential wider campaigns amid Mexico's sovereignty concerns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 16, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Hacim
$90,581Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 16, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a low 12% chance of a qualifying U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by April 30, rising to 27% by June 30, reflecting the Trump administration's aggressive push via the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (ACCC) formed March 7 but no confirmed direct U.S. personnel ground participation or independent kinetic strikes to date. Recent joint U.S.-Ecuador actions under Operation Total Extermination in early March targeted cartel infrastructure near the Colombia border through aerial bombardment, yet relied on support roles rather than boots-on-the-ground involvement. Ongoing U.S. maritime strikes in the eastern Pacific against trafficking vessels do not qualify as foreign soil operations, while an April 10 FAA-Pentagon deal enables anti-drone lasers near Mexico. Escalation risks grow with ACCC expansion, including new Status of Forces Agreements and potential wider campaigns amid Mexico's sovereignty concerns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$90,581Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 16, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a low 12% chance of a qualifying U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by April 30, rising to 27% by June 30, reflecting the Trump administration's aggressive push via the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (ACCC) formed March 7 but no confirmed direct U.S. personnel ground participation or independent kinetic strikes to date. Recent joint U.S.-Ecuador actions under Operation Total Extermination in early March targeted cartel infrastructure near the Colombia border through aerial bombardment, yet relied on support roles rather than boots-on-the-ground involvement. Ongoing U.S. maritime strikes in the eastern Pacific against trafficking vessels do not qualify as foreign soil operations, while an April 10 FAA-Pentagon deal enables anti-drone lasers near Mexico. Escalation risks grow with ACCC expansion, including new Status of Forces Agreements and potential wider campaigns amid Mexico's sovereignty concerns.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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