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2026 Fields Madalyasını kim kazanacak?

Market icon

2026 Fields Madalyasını kim kazanacak?

$497,590 Hac.

30 Tem 2026
Polymarket

$497,590 Hac.

Polymarket

Hong Wang

$58,687 Hac.

78%

Jacob Tsimerman

$51,781 Hac.

66%

Jack Thorne

$99,405 Hac.

45%

John Pardon

$83,837 Hac.

44%

Yu Deng

$112,708 Hac.

37%

Aleksandr Logunov

$181 Hac.

35%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$84,224 Hac.

31%

Sam Raskin

$2,447 Hac.

22%

Alexander Efimov

$519 Hac.

13%

Will Sawin

$3,800 Hac.

16%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus for the 2026 Fields Medal hinges on landmark breakthroughs, with Hong Wang's 2025 resolution of the century-old three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture generating frontrunner momentum through its profound impact on geometric measure theory. Jacob Tsimerman's earlier Andre-Oort proof and contributions from Jack Thorne, John Pardon, and Yu Deng in number theory and topology sustain their competitive standing, while Julian Sahasrabudhe's recent Adams Prize in discrete mathematics and ICM 2026 speaking invitation spurred a sharp probability surge last week. Aleksandr Logunov faded amid multi-candidate dynamics. The secretive International Mathematical Union process—selecting up to four under-40 winners—defies prediction, with awards revealed at ICM Philadelphia, July 23-30, 2026, amid a boycott petition over U.S. hosting that has yet to alter industry narrative.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Hacim
$497,590
Bitiş Tarihi
30 Tem 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus for the 2026 Fields Medal hinges on landmark breakthroughs, with Hong Wang's 2025 resolution of the century-old three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture generating frontrunner momentum through its profound impact on geometric measure theory. Jacob Tsimerman's earlier Andre-Oort proof and contributions from Jack Thorne, John Pardon, and Yu Deng in number theory and topology sustain their competitive standing, while Julian Sahasrabudhe's recent Adams Prize in discrete mathematics and ICM 2026 speaking invitation spurred a sharp probability surge last week. Aleksandr Logunov faded amid multi-candidate dynamics. The secretive International Mathematical Union process—selecting up to four under-40 winners—defies prediction, with awards revealed at ICM Philadelphia, July 23-30, 2026, amid a boycott petition over U.S. hosting that has yet to alter industry narrative.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Hacim
$497,590
Bitiş Tarihi
30 Tem 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

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Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"2026 Fields Madalyasını kim kazanacak?", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 10 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 78% ile "Hong Wang", ardından 66% ile "Jacob Tsimerman" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 78¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 78% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "2026 Fields Madalyasını kim kazanacak?" toplam $497.6K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Jan 6, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"2026 Fields Madalyasını kim kazanacak?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 10 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"2026 Fields Madalyasını kim kazanacak?" için mevcut favori 78% ile "Hong Wang"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 78% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 66% ile "Jacob Tsimerman"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"2026 Fields Madalyasını kim kazanacak?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.