Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July 2026 jobs report showing a -23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of +83,000 and an unemployment rate falling to 4.1% amid a sharp drop in labor force participation to 61.4%, is anchoring trader sentiment for the August reading. This "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic, combined with prior data revisions and stable but elevated inflation pressures, has compressed probabilities around 4.1% to 4.3% outcomes. Key swing factors include August labor force reentry trends, sector-specific hiring in retail and government, and any early signals from leading indicators like jobless claims. The August employment situation, scheduled for release September 4, remains the immediate catalyst that could resolve the tight market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4.1% 32%
4.2% 28%
4.3% 20%
4.0% 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
1%
3.9%
2%
4.0%
13%
4.1%
32%
4.2%
28%
4.3%
20%
4.4%
5%
4.5%
3%
≥4.6%
5%
4.1% 32%
4.2% 28%
4.3% 20%
4.0% 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
$110 Обс.
1%
3.9%
$112 Обс.
2%
4.0%
$554 Обс.
13%
4.1%
$2,349 Обс.
32%
4.2%
$1,054 Обс.
28%
4.3%
$639 Обс.
20%
4.4%
$146 Обс.
5%
4.5%
$132 Обс.
3%
≥4.6%
$112 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July 2026 jobs report showing a -23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of +83,000 and an unemployment rate falling to 4.1% amid a sharp drop in labor force participation to 61.4%, is anchoring trader sentiment for the August reading. This "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic, combined with prior data revisions and stable but elevated inflation pressures, has compressed probabilities around 4.1% to 4.3% outcomes. Key swing factors include August labor force reentry trends, sector-specific hiring in retail and government, and any early signals from leading indicators like jobless claims. The August employment situation, scheduled for release September 4, remains the immediate catalyst that could resolve the tight market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$5,183Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July 2026 jobs report showing a -23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of +83,000 and an unemployment rate falling to 4.1% amid a sharp drop in labor force participation to 61.4%, is anchoring trader sentiment for the August reading. This "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic, combined with prior data revisions and stable but elevated inflation pressures, has compressed probabilities around 4.1% to 4.3% outcomes. Key swing factors include August labor force reentry trends, sector-specific hiring in retail and government, and any early signals from leading indicators like jobless claims. The August employment situation, scheduled for release September 4, remains the immediate catalyst that could resolve the tight market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Обсяг
$5,183Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July 2026 jobs report showing a -23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of +83,000 and an unemployment rate falling to 4.1% amid a sharp drop in labor force participation to 61.4%, is anchoring trader sentiment for the August reading. This "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic, combined with prior data revisions and stable but elevated inflation pressures, has compressed probabilities around 4.1% to 4.3% outcomes. Key swing factors include August labor force reentry trends, sector-specific hiring in retail and government, and any early signals from leading indicators like jobless claims. The August employment situation, scheduled for release September 4, remains the immediate catalyst that could resolve the tight market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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