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Технологія·AI

Best AI model on May 1? (Style Control Off)

icon for Best AI model on May 1? (Style Control Off)
Технологія·AI

Best AI model on May 1? (Style Control Off)

Ended: May 1

Jul 18

Ended: May 1

Jul 18

claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%

claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%

claude-opus-4-7 <1%

muse-spark <1%

Polymarket

$51,989 Обс.

claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%

claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%

claude-opus-4-7 <1%

muse-spark <1%

Polymarket

$51,989 Обс.

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$27,337 Обс.

Yes

claude-opus-4-7-thinking

$17,394 Обс.

No

claude-opus-4-7

$875 Обс.

No

muse-spark

$823 Обс.

No

Other

$1,820 Обс.

No

claude-opus-4-6

$1,260 Обс.

No

gemini-3.1-pro-preview

$769 Обс.

No

gemini-3-pro

$839 Обс.

No

gpt-5.4-high

$872 Обс.

No

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking as the top AI model on May 1 under style control off on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard, driven by its commanding Arena Elo score of around 1502—backed by over 22,000 user votes in blind preference battles—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by 9 points and even newer sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking. This positioning stems from Anthropic's early 2026 Opus 4.6 release, which excelled in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks per crowd-sourced evaluations, maintaining dominance through April despite user reports of real-world nerfs. While the lead appears unassailable with vast vote volume reflecting skin-in-the-game wisdom, realistic challenges include leaderboard volatility from fresh battles favoring low-vote contenders or an 11th-hour model preview from rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.x series before the May 1 snapshot.

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$51,989
Дата завершення
May 1, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Результат запропоновано: Yes

Без оскарження

Кінцевий результат: Yes

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking as the top AI model on May 1 under style control off on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard, driven by its commanding Arena Elo score of around 1502—backed by over 22,000 user votes in blind preference battles—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by 9 points and even newer sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking. This positioning stems from Anthropic's early 2026 Opus 4.6 release, which excelled in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks per crowd-sourced evaluations, maintaining dominance through April despite user reports of real-world nerfs. While the lead appears unassailable with vast vote volume reflecting skin-in-the-game wisdom, realistic challenges include leaderboard volatility from fresh battles favoring low-vote contenders or an 11th-hour model preview from rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.x series before the May 1 snapshot.

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$51,989
Дата завершення
May 1, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Результат запропоновано: Yes

Без оскарження

Кінцевий результат: Yes

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Best AI model on May 1? (Style Control Off)» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 9 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «claude-opus-4-6-thinking» з 100%, далі «claude-opus-4-7-thinking» з 0%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Best AI model on May 1? (Style Control Off)» згенерував $52K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 27, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Best AI model on May 1? (Style Control Off)», перегляньте 9 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Best AI model on May 1? (Style Control Off)» — «claude-opus-4-6-thinking» з 100%. Наступний — «claude-opus-4-7-thinking» з 0%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Best AI model on May 1? (Style Control Off)» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.