Trader consensus on a 70% market-implied probability for no CDC Level 4 "Do Not Travel" notice by December 31 reflects the complete absence of active Level 4 warnings and stable global epidemiological conditions, with no outbreaks escalating to extreme risk thresholds as of April 2026. Official CDC surveillance shows zero Level 4 or even Level 3 health notices, down from prior lower-level alerts like chikungunya in China and Cuba that were recently removed after risks subsided. Ongoing Level 1 and 2 notices for global dengue (updated April 16), meningococcal disease, and others indicate routine vigilance but no widespread, life-threatening transmission dynamics warranting Level 4 criteria, such as uncontrollable epidemics or novel pathogens with high mortality. Historical rarity of Level 4 issuances—reserved for scenarios like major Ebola outbreaks—bolsters this positioning, though unforeseen surges could shift odds ahead of routine CDC and WHO reporting cycles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
$70,268 Обс.
$70,268 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$70,268 Обс.
$70,268 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on a 70% market-implied probability for no CDC Level 4 "Do Not Travel" notice by December 31 reflects the complete absence of active Level 4 warnings and stable global epidemiological conditions, with no outbreaks escalating to extreme risk thresholds as of April 2026. Official CDC surveillance shows zero Level 4 or even Level 3 health notices, down from prior lower-level alerts like chikungunya in China and Cuba that were recently removed after risks subsided. Ongoing Level 1 and 2 notices for global dengue (updated April 16), meningococcal disease, and others indicate routine vigilance but no widespread, life-threatening transmission dynamics warranting Level 4 criteria, such as uncontrollable epidemics or novel pathogens with high mortality. Historical rarity of Level 4 issuances—reserved for scenarios like major Ebola outbreaks—bolsters this positioning, though unforeseen surges could shift odds ahead of routine CDC and WHO reporting cycles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$70,268Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on a 70% market-implied probability for no CDC Level 4 "Do Not Travel" notice by December 31 reflects the complete absence of active Level 4 warnings and stable global epidemiological conditions, with no outbreaks escalating to extreme risk thresholds as of April 2026. Official CDC surveillance shows zero Level 4 or even Level 3 health notices, down from prior lower-level alerts like chikungunya in China and Cuba that were recently removed after risks subsided. Ongoing Level 1 and 2 notices for global dengue (updated April 16), meningococcal disease, and others indicate routine vigilance but no widespread, life-threatening transmission dynamics warranting Level 4 criteria, such as uncontrollable epidemics or novel pathogens with high mortality. Historical rarity of Level 4 issuances—reserved for scenarios like major Ebola outbreaks—bolsters this positioning, though unforeseen surges could shift odds ahead of routine CDC and WHO reporting cycles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$70,268Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 70% market-implied probability for no CDC Level 4 "Do Not Travel" notice by December 31 reflects the complete absence of active Level 4 warnings and stable global epidemiological conditions, with no outbreaks escalating to extreme risk thresholds as of April 2026. Official CDC surveillance shows zero Level 4 or even Level 3 health notices, down from prior lower-level alerts like chikungunya in China and Cuba that were recently removed after risks subsided. Ongoing Level 1 and 2 notices for global dengue (updated April 16), meningococcal disease, and others indicate routine vigilance but no widespread, life-threatening transmission dynamics warranting Level 4 criteria, such as uncontrollable epidemics or novel pathogens with high mortality. Historical rarity of Level 4 issuances—reserved for scenarios like major Ebola outbreaks—bolsters this positioning, though unforeseen surges could shift odds ahead of routine CDC and WHO reporting cycles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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