Geopolitical supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive elevated crude oil prices, underpinning the 60.5% market-implied probability for a June settlement above $84. Recent surges on June 1 and 2, with WTI climbing above $92 and Brent nearing $95 amid stalled ceasefire talks, have reinforced trader positioning despite some pullback from April peaks near $110. EIA data highlight an expected 8.5 million barrels per day global inventory draw in Q2 2026, sustaining backwardation into June before potential production recovery narrows the premium. Upcoming weekly inventory reports and any signals on Hormuz reopening or OPEC+ decisions represent key near-term swing factors that could shift the closely watched $77–$84 band at 19.5%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 61%
$77-$84 20%
$70-$77 11.4%
$63-$70 2.8%
$211,223 Обс.
$211,223 Обс.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
11%
$77-$84
20%
>$84
61%
>$84 61%
$77-$84 20%
$70-$77 11.4%
$63-$70 2.8%
$211,223 Обс.
$211,223 Обс.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
11%
$77-$84
20%
>$84
61%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive elevated crude oil prices, underpinning the 60.5% market-implied probability for a June settlement above $84. Recent surges on June 1 and 2, with WTI climbing above $92 and Brent nearing $95 amid stalled ceasefire talks, have reinforced trader positioning despite some pullback from April peaks near $110. EIA data highlight an expected 8.5 million barrels per day global inventory draw in Q2 2026, sustaining backwardation into June before potential production recovery narrows the premium. Upcoming weekly inventory reports and any signals on Hormuz reopening or OPEC+ decisions represent key near-term swing factors that could shift the closely watched $77–$84 band at 19.5%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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