Former Bolivian President Evo Morales faces a standing judicial arrest warrant on aggravated human trafficking and sexual abuse charges, yet remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, protected by loyal cocalero supporters. President Rodrigo Paz's Interior Ministry announced intentions to arrest him as a trial looms in late February 2026, following Morales' seven-week disappearance and reemergence, but no enforcement actions have materialized in the ensuing seven weeks amid logistical and political risks. Traders' 85.5% consensus on "No" reflects this ongoing stalemate, historical warrant annulments, and absence of recent escalations, with subnational elections on March 22 underscoring caution against unrest before May 31 resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 31, 2026
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Bolivian President Evo Morales faces a standing judicial arrest warrant on aggravated human trafficking and sexual abuse charges, yet remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, protected by loyal cocalero supporters. President Rodrigo Paz's Interior Ministry announced intentions to arrest him as a trial looms in late February 2026, following Morales' seven-week disappearance and reemergence, but no enforcement actions have materialized in the ensuing seven weeks amid logistical and political risks. Traders' 85.5% consensus on "No" reflects this ongoing stalemate, historical warrant annulments, and absence of recent escalations, with subnational elections on March 22 underscoring caution against unrest before May 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,162Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Bolivian President Evo Morales faces a standing judicial arrest warrant on aggravated human trafficking and sexual abuse charges, yet remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, protected by loyal cocalero supporters. President Rodrigo Paz's Interior Ministry announced intentions to arrest him as a trial looms in late February 2026, following Morales' seven-week disappearance and reemergence, but no enforcement actions have materialized in the ensuing seven weeks amid logistical and political risks. Traders' 85.5% consensus on "No" reflects this ongoing stalemate, historical warrant annulments, and absence of recent escalations, with subnational elections on March 22 underscoring caution against unrest before May 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$9,162Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Former Bolivian President Evo Morales faces a standing judicial arrest warrant on aggravated human trafficking and sexual abuse charges, yet remains at large in his Chapare stronghold, protected by loyal cocalero supporters. President Rodrigo Paz's Interior Ministry announced intentions to arrest him as a trial looms in late February 2026, following Morales' seven-week disappearance and reemergence, but no enforcement actions have materialized in the ensuing seven weeks amid logistical and political risks. Traders' 85.5% consensus on "No" reflects this ongoing stalemate, historical warrant annulments, and absence of recent escalations, with subnational elections on March 22 underscoring caution against unrest before May 31 resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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