The May 2026 reports of a Justice Department inquiry into possible perjury by E. Jean Carroll—centered on her 2022 deposition statements about outside funding from Reid Hoffman’s nonprofit for her civil lawsuits against President Trump—initially elevated trader expectations of federal charges by year-end. Official clarifications from the Northern District of Illinois U.S. Attorney quickly denied any probe targeting Carroll herself, shifting focus to the nonprofit, while no indictments, grand jury actions, or further enforcement steps have followed. Carroll’s civil verdicts ($5 million and $83.3 million) were upheld after Supreme Court declines of Trump’s appeals in June and August 2026, with no new developments since. Trader consensus around 45-50% reflects these early signals of scrutiny amid the current administration alongside the absence of concrete prosecutorial momentum or procedural timelines that could produce charges before December 31.