US-Iran tensions escalated into direct military conflict in early 2026 with joint US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian leadership, missiles, and infrastructure, but these operations remained limited to air and missile campaigns without a sustained US ground invasion. A ceasefire took effect in April, followed by a June memorandum of understanding aimed at ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing nuclear concerns through phased diplomacy. Although sporadic clashes and sanctions disputes have persisted into August, ongoing negotiations and the absence of territorial seizure operations support traders' 83.5% assessment that a qualifying US invasion is unlikely before the December 2026 resolution date.