Amid the Trump administration's January 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba's ties to adversaries like Russia and Iran—coupled with oil sanctions post-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's U.S. capture—traders price a slim chance of full U.S. invasion this year. Recent rhetoric from President Trump, including April 13 remarks hinting at action "after we're finished" with Iran, spurred Pentagon contingency planning reported April 15, yet officials stress readiness over commitment. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel vowed defensive resistance amid blackouts, but U.S.-Cuban diplomatic talks in Havana on April 17, offering Starlink access for reforms, underscore de-escalation paths. Consensus favors "No" at 76.5%, citing political hurdles, absent casus belli, and competing priorities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
$1,438,257 Обс.
$1,438,257 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
$1,438,257 Обс.
$1,438,257 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid the Trump administration's January 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba's ties to adversaries like Russia and Iran—coupled with oil sanctions post-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's U.S. capture—traders price a slim chance of full U.S. invasion this year. Recent rhetoric from President Trump, including April 13 remarks hinting at action "after we're finished" with Iran, spurred Pentagon contingency planning reported April 15, yet officials stress readiness over commitment. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel vowed defensive resistance amid blackouts, but U.S.-Cuban diplomatic talks in Havana on April 17, offering Starlink access for reforms, underscore de-escalation paths. Consensus favors "No" at 76.5%, citing political hurdles, absent casus belli, and competing priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,438,257Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid the Trump administration's January 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba's ties to adversaries like Russia and Iran—coupled with oil sanctions post-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's U.S. capture—traders price a slim chance of full U.S. invasion this year. Recent rhetoric from President Trump, including April 13 remarks hinting at action "after we're finished" with Iran, spurred Pentagon contingency planning reported April 15, yet officials stress readiness over commitment. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel vowed defensive resistance amid blackouts, but U.S.-Cuban diplomatic talks in Havana on April 17, offering Starlink access for reforms, underscore de-escalation paths. Consensus favors "No" at 76.5%, citing political hurdles, absent casus belli, and competing priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Обсяг
$1,438,257Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the Trump administration's January 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba's ties to adversaries like Russia and Iran—coupled with oil sanctions post-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's U.S. capture—traders price a slim chance of full U.S. invasion this year. Recent rhetoric from President Trump, including April 13 remarks hinting at action "after we're finished" with Iran, spurred Pentagon contingency planning reported April 15, yet officials stress readiness over commitment. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel vowed defensive resistance amid blackouts, but U.S.-Cuban diplomatic talks in Havana on April 17, offering Starlink access for reforms, underscore de-escalation paths. Consensus favors "No" at 76.5%, citing political hurdles, absent casus belli, and competing priorities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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