Trader consensus implies a 92.5% probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, reflecting strengthened bilateral cooperation amid President Trump's anti-cartel rhetoric. Mexico's February operation killing CJNG leader El Mencho, a 14-32% drop in murders, and extradition of over 90 cartel figures to the U.S. have eased tensions, bolstered by a joint task force integrating U.S. military intelligence. President Claudia Sheinbaum's firm rejection of foreign troops, combined with Trump's March Americas Counter Cartel Coalition emphasizing regional partnerships over unilateral action, prioritizes diplomacy. Recent U.S.-Mexico trade talks advancing the 2026 USMCA review highlight economic interdependence. Late-breaking cartel escalations, diplomatic breakdowns, or sovereignty disputes could shift odds, though constitutional barriers and alliance status make invasion unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
$101,671 Обс.
$101,671 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$101,671 Обс.
$101,671 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 92.5% probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, reflecting strengthened bilateral cooperation amid President Trump's anti-cartel rhetoric. Mexico's February operation killing CJNG leader El Mencho, a 14-32% drop in murders, and extradition of over 90 cartel figures to the U.S. have eased tensions, bolstered by a joint task force integrating U.S. military intelligence. President Claudia Sheinbaum's firm rejection of foreign troops, combined with Trump's March Americas Counter Cartel Coalition emphasizing regional partnerships over unilateral action, prioritizes diplomacy. Recent U.S.-Mexico trade talks advancing the 2026 USMCA review highlight economic interdependence. Late-breaking cartel escalations, diplomatic breakdowns, or sovereignty disputes could shift odds, though constitutional barriers and alliance status make invasion unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$101,671Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 92.5% probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, reflecting strengthened bilateral cooperation amid President Trump's anti-cartel rhetoric. Mexico's February operation killing CJNG leader El Mencho, a 14-32% drop in murders, and extradition of over 90 cartel figures to the U.S. have eased tensions, bolstered by a joint task force integrating U.S. military intelligence. President Claudia Sheinbaum's firm rejection of foreign troops, combined with Trump's March Americas Counter Cartel Coalition emphasizing regional partnerships over unilateral action, prioritizes diplomacy. Recent U.S.-Mexico trade talks advancing the 2026 USMCA review highlight economic interdependence. Late-breaking cartel escalations, diplomatic breakdowns, or sovereignty disputes could shift odds, though constitutional barriers and alliance status make invasion unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$102,296Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 92.5% probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, reflecting strengthened bilateral cooperation amid President Trump's anti-cartel rhetoric. Mexico's February operation killing CJNG leader El Mencho, a 14-32% drop in murders, and extradition of over 90 cartel figures to the U.S. have eased tensions, bolstered by a joint task force integrating U.S. military intelligence. President Claudia Sheinbaum's firm rejection of foreign troops, combined with Trump's March Americas Counter Cartel Coalition emphasizing regional partnerships over unilateral action, prioritizes diplomacy. Recent U.S.-Mexico trade talks advancing the 2026 USMCA review highlight economic interdependence. Late-breaking cartel escalations, diplomatic breakdowns, or sovereignty disputes could shift odds, though constitutional barriers and alliance status make invasion unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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