Trader consensus favors the CDU with 57.5% implied probability as the leading party in the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by its consistent polling edge in the fragmented field. The latest INSA survey through April 14 shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, and Grüne and Die Linke at 15% each, with BSW at 4%, FDP at 3%, and others at 8%. This maintains CDU's incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner despite a slight recent dip from 22-23%, as opposition remains split without a clear challenger surging. The current CDU-SPD coalition projects below majority, signaling likely three-party coalitions post-election, but stable Sonntagsfragen reinforce CDU's position as top vote-getter.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПереможець виборів у штаті Берлін
Переможець виборів у штаті Берлін
СДП 57%
Зелені 15.3%
Ліві 12%
АдН 9.7%
$2,573,802 Обс.
$2,573,802 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
СДП
57%
Зелені
15%
Ліві
12%
АдН
10%
СДПН
7%
BSW
1%
ВДП
<1%
FW
<1%
СДП 57%
Зелені 15.3%
Ліві 12%
АдН 9.7%
$2,573,802 Обс.
$2,573,802 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
СДП
$15,416 Обс.
57%
Зелені
$27,955 Обс.
15%
Ліві
$11,660 Обс.
12%
АдН
$2,187,456 Обс.
10%
СДПН
$287,435 Обс.
7%
BSW
$26,369 Обс.
1%
ВДП
$10,379 Обс.
<1%
FW
$7,131 Обс.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with 57.5% implied probability as the leading party in the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by its consistent polling edge in the fragmented field. The latest INSA survey through April 14 shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, and Grüne and Die Linke at 15% each, with BSW at 4%, FDP at 3%, and others at 8%. This maintains CDU's incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner despite a slight recent dip from 22-23%, as opposition remains split without a clear challenger surging. The current CDU-SPD coalition projects below majority, signaling likely three-party coalitions post-election, but stable Sonntagsfragen reinforce CDU's position as top vote-getter.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Ринок відкрито: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,573,802Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with 57.5% implied probability as the leading party in the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by its consistent polling edge in the fragmented field. The latest INSA survey through April 14 shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, and Grüne and Die Linke at 15% each, with BSW at 4%, FDP at 3%, and others at 8%. This maintains CDU's incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner despite a slight recent dip from 22-23%, as opposition remains split without a clear challenger surging. The current CDU-SPD coalition projects below majority, signaling likely three-party coalitions post-election, but stable Sonntagsfragen reinforce CDU's position as top vote-getter.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Обсяг
$2,573,802Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU with 57.5% implied probability as the leading party in the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by its consistent polling edge in the fragmented field. The latest INSA survey through April 14 shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, and Grüne and Die Linke at 15% each, with BSW at 4%, FDP at 3%, and others at 8%. This maintains CDU's incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner despite a slight recent dip from 22-23%, as opposition remains split without a clear challenger surging. The current CDU-SPD coalition projects below majority, signaling likely three-party coalitions post-election, but stable Sonntagsfragen reinforce CDU's position as top vote-getter.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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