Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGemini 3.2 released on...?
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
May 19 34%
No release by May 31 31%
May 12 7%
May 27 6.9%
$35,819 Обс.
$35,819 Обс.
May 31, 2026
On or prior to May 6
<1%
May 7
2%
May 8
8%
May 9
1%
May 10
3%
May 11
3%
May 12
7%
May 13
6%
May 14
5%
May 15
2%
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
4%
May 19
34%
May 20
5%
May 21
3%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
3%
May 26
1%
May 27
7%
May 28
<1%
May 29
1%
May 30
2%
May 31
1%
No release by May 31
31%
May 19 34%
No release by May 31 31%
May 12 7%
May 27 6.9%
$35,819 Обс.
$35,819 Обс.
May 31, 2026
On or prior to May 6
$1,428 Обс.
<1%
May 7
$788 Обс.
2%
May 8
$499 Обс.
8%
May 9
$2,773 Обс.
1%
May 10
$2,853 Обс.
3%
May 11
$554 Обс.
3%
May 12
$567 Обс.
7%
May 13
$604 Обс.
6%
May 14
$526 Обс.
5%
May 15
$524 Обс.
2%
May 16
$2,806 Обс.
<1%
May 17
$2,818 Обс.
1%
May 18
$752 Обс.
4%
May 19
$1,292 Обс.
34%
May 20
$857 Обс.
5%
May 21
$791 Обс.
3%
May 22
$771 Обс.
2%
May 23
$2,581 Обс.
<1%
May 24
$2,626 Обс.
1%
May 25
$596 Обс.
3%
May 26
$601 Обс.
1%
May 27
$586 Обс.
7%
May 28
$586 Обс.
<1%
May 29
$611 Обс.
1%
May 30
$2,995 Обс.
2%
May 31
$2,762 Обс.
1%
No release by May 31
$673 Обс.
31%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$35,819Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$35,819Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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