Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, has captured top spots on multiple leaderboards including Artificial Analysis intelligence and agentic indices as well as LMSYS coding benchmarks, building on the earlier return of Claude Fable 5. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family (Sol, Terra, Luna), generally available since early July, remains within a few points on reasoning and math tasks while Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash variants emphasize speed and cost efficiency. Performance across frontier labs has converged, shifting trader focus to release cadence, domain-specific gains, and pricing. With several labs expected to ship major updates before year-end, the market reflects ongoing competition rather than a settled hierarchy.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$86,437 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
OpenAI
30%
24%
Moonshot
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
ByteDance
10%
Z.ai
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Alibaba
7%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
7%
Mistral
3%
$86,437 Обс.
OpenAI
$18,441 Обс.
30%
$16,612 Обс.
24%
Moonshot
$4,074 Обс.
13%
xAI
$8,291 Обс.
13%
Meta
$12,144 Обс.
12%
ByteDance
$2,392 Обс.
10%
Z.ai
$2,479 Обс.
8%
DeepSeek
$2,941 Обс.
8%
Amazon
$2,727 Обс.
8%
Microsoft
$3,469 Обс.
8%
Alibaba
$2,220 Обс.
7%
Baidu
$1,891 Обс.
7%
Meituan
$1,986 Обс.
7%
Mistral
$6,771 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, has captured top spots on multiple leaderboards including Artificial Analysis intelligence and agentic indices as well as LMSYS coding benchmarks, building on the earlier return of Claude Fable 5. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family (Sol, Terra, Luna), generally available since early July, remains within a few points on reasoning and math tasks while Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash variants emphasize speed and cost efficiency. Performance across frontier labs has converged, shifting trader focus to release cadence, domain-specific gains, and pricing. With several labs expected to ship major updates before year-end, the market reflects ongoing competition rather than a settled hierarchy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$86,437Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, has captured top spots on multiple leaderboards including Artificial Analysis intelligence and agentic indices as well as LMSYS coding benchmarks, building on the earlier return of Claude Fable 5. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family (Sol, Terra, Luna), generally available since early July, remains within a few points on reasoning and math tasks while Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash variants emphasize speed and cost efficiency. Performance across frontier labs has converged, shifting trader focus to release cadence, domain-specific gains, and pricing. With several labs expected to ship major updates before year-end, the market reflects ongoing competition rather than a settled hierarchy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$86,437Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, has captured top spots on multiple leaderboards including Artificial Analysis intelligence and agentic indices as well as LMSYS coding benchmarks, building on the earlier return of Claude Fable 5. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family (Sol, Terra, Luna), generally available since early July, remains within a few points on reasoning and math tasks while Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash variants emphasize speed and cost efficiency. Performance across frontier labs has converged, shifting trader focus to release cadence, domain-specific gains, and pricing. With several labs expected to ship major updates before year-end, the market reflects ongoing competition rather than a settled hierarchy.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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