Bipartisan congressional action has driven the near-certain trader consensus against a government shutdown by October 1. Lawmakers enacted a continuing resolution in early September that extends federal funding at current levels through December 11, clearing both chambers with strong majorities before President Trump signed it into law. This measure directly addresses the September 30 expiration of prior appropriations, eliminating the immediate lapse risk ahead of the November midterms. Historical patterns of last-minute brinkmanship and repeated past shutdowns prompted early action this cycle to avoid voter backlash. Only an unexpected legal challenge or abrupt reversal of the enacted stopgap before the deadline could alter the outcome, though neither scenario currently shows momentum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2% шанс
$16,143 Обс.
$16,143 Обс.
Oct 1, 2026
2% шанс
$16,143 Обс.
$16,143 Обс.
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Bipartisan congressional action has driven the near-certain trader consensus against a government shutdown by October 1. Lawmakers enacted a continuing resolution in early September that extends federal funding at current levels through December 11, clearing both chambers with strong majorities before President Trump signed it into law. This measure directly addresses the September 30 expiration of prior appropriations, eliminating the immediate lapse risk ahead of the November midterms. Historical patterns of last-minute brinkmanship and repeated past shutdowns prompted early action this cycle to avoid voter backlash. Only an unexpected legal challenge or abrupt reversal of the enacted stopgap before the deadline could alter the outcome, though neither scenario currently shows momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$16,143Дата завершення
Oct 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Bipartisan congressional action has driven the near-certain trader consensus against a government shutdown by October 1. Lawmakers enacted a continuing resolution in early September that extends federal funding at current levels through December 11, clearing both chambers with strong majorities before President Trump signed it into law. This measure directly addresses the September 30 expiration of prior appropriations, eliminating the immediate lapse risk ahead of the November midterms. Historical patterns of last-minute brinkmanship and repeated past shutdowns prompted early action this cycle to avoid voter backlash. Only an unexpected legal challenge or abrupt reversal of the enacted stopgap before the deadline could alter the outcome, though neither scenario currently shows momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$16,143Дата завершення
Oct 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan congressional action has driven the near-certain trader consensus against a government shutdown by October 1. Lawmakers enacted a continuing resolution in early September that extends federal funding at current levels through December 11, clearing both chambers with strong majorities before President Trump signed it into law. This measure directly addresses the September 30 expiration of prior appropriations, eliminating the immediate lapse risk ahead of the November midterms. Historical patterns of last-minute brinkmanship and repeated past shutdowns prompted early action this cycle to avoid voter backlash. Only an unexpected legal challenge or abrupt reversal of the enacted stopgap before the deadline could alter the outcome, though neither scenario currently shows momentum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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