Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors an OpenAI GPT-5.5 release on April 23 (82.5% implied probability), propelled by backlash against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 launch on April 16, which users criticized as sloppy and less reliable than its predecessor despite claims of improved agentic capabilities and instruction-following. This mirrors a February pattern where Anthropic's early Opus drop prompted OpenAI's immediate GPT-5.3-Codex response. Persistent leaks—codenaming GPT-5.5 "Spud" as a natively omnimodal large language model with superior reasoning and 2-million-token context—fuel optimism, alongside OpenAI's April 9 GPT-5.3 Instant mini rollout and recent Codex superapp expansions. No official announcement exists, but competitive pressures and historical tit-for-tat dynamics position April 23 as the key watch date before April 30 resolution risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGPT-5.5 released on...?
GPT-5.5 released on...?
April 23 83%
No release by April 30 4.8%
April 30 3.7%
April 21 3.0%
$128,699 Обс.
$128,699 Обс.
Apr 30, 2026
April 17
<1%
April 18
<1%
April 19
<1%
April 20
2%
April 21
3%
April 22
1%
April 23
83%
April 24
2%
April 25
<1%
April 26
1%
April 27
2%
April 28
2%
April 29
1%
April 30
4%
No release by April 30
5%
April 23 83%
No release by April 30 4.8%
April 30 3.7%
April 21 3.0%
$128,699 Обс.
$128,699 Обс.
Apr 30, 2026
April 17
$2,956 Обс.
<1%
April 18
$2,130 Обс.
<1%
April 19
$1,917 Обс.
<1%
April 20
$2,326 Обс.
2%
April 21
$3,458 Обс.
3%
April 22
$5,009 Обс.
1%
April 23
$27,120 Обс.
83%
April 24
$2,650 Обс.
2%
April 25
$1,552 Обс.
<1%
April 26
$1,910 Обс.
1%
April 27
$2,333 Обс.
2%
April 28
$2,819 Обс.
2%
April 29
$2,407 Обс.
1%
April 30
$4,232 Обс.
4%
No release by April 30
$6,577 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors an OpenAI GPT-5.5 release on April 23 (82.5% implied probability), propelled by backlash against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 launch on April 16, which users criticized as sloppy and less reliable than its predecessor despite claims of improved agentic capabilities and instruction-following. This mirrors a February pattern where Anthropic's early Opus drop prompted OpenAI's immediate GPT-5.3-Codex response. Persistent leaks—codenaming GPT-5.5 "Spud" as a natively omnimodal large language model with superior reasoning and 2-million-token context—fuel optimism, alongside OpenAI's April 9 GPT-5.3 Instant mini rollout and recent Codex superapp expansions. No official announcement exists, but competitive pressures and historical tit-for-tat dynamics position April 23 as the key watch date before April 30 resolution risks.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$128,699Дата завершення
Apr 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors an OpenAI GPT-5.5 release on April 23 (82.5% implied probability), propelled by backlash against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 launch on April 16, which users criticized as sloppy and less reliable than its predecessor despite claims of improved agentic capabilities and instruction-following. This mirrors a February pattern where Anthropic's early Opus drop prompted OpenAI's immediate GPT-5.3-Codex response. Persistent leaks—codenaming GPT-5.5 "Spud" as a natively omnimodal large language model with superior reasoning and 2-million-token context—fuel optimism, alongside OpenAI's April 9 GPT-5.3 Instant mini rollout and recent Codex superapp expansions. No official announcement exists, but competitive pressures and historical tit-for-tat dynamics position April 23 as the key watch date before April 30 resolution risks.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$128,699Дата завершення
Apr 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors an OpenAI GPT-5.5 release on April 23 (82.5% implied probability), propelled by backlash against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 launch on April 16, which users criticized as sloppy and less reliable than its predecessor despite claims of improved agentic capabilities and instruction-following. This mirrors a February pattern where Anthropic's early Opus drop prompted OpenAI's immediate GPT-5.3-Codex response. Persistent leaks—codenaming GPT-5.5 "Spud" as a natively omnimodal large language model with superior reasoning and 2-million-token context—fuel optimism, alongside OpenAI's April 9 GPT-5.3 Instant mini rollout and recent Codex superapp expansions. No official announcement exists, but competitive pressures and historical tit-for-tat dynamics position April 23 as the key watch date before April 30 resolution risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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