National Weather Service observations and forecast models indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover over Houston on June 4 limited daytime heating, holding the official high at the William P. Hobby Airport station to 84–85 °F. This convective suppression deviated from early-June climatological normals of 88–92 °F, where clearer skies typically allow stronger insolation and surface warming. Market-implied odds reflect near-certainty in the measured maximum, consistent with real-time station data and the resolution criteria tied to National Weather Service climatological reports. A later shift in storm timing or reduced cloud cover could have nudged readings into the 86–87 °F range, though current guidance and post-event verification rule out such outcomes.